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行情很好,期权卖方持续回血中

  • 2026-04-01 12:18:39
行情很好,期权卖方持续回血中
这几天商品期货结束了整体升波，市场平均IV从37%开始回落，持仓很高的账户都在回血中。这也再一次证实了仓位稳定的重要性。赢冲输缩是人性的常态，这一点在策略上不好实现，特别是期货，期权这样带高杠杆的交易品种。几年前我的期货策略就是坚持的赢冲输缩这个理念。事实是赚得很快，亏得更快。例如开始投入10万，赚了10%冲一下，加仓到20万，浮盈变成了5%，行情再回调5%利润全没有。后来我认识到行情不可能一直单边运行，不停的盈利加仓就是不停的抬高自己的成本，放弃了这个策略。
期权策略有个特性，买方策略实际上就是不停的自动加杠杆，所以盈亏比可以相当的高，卖方策略就是不停的降杠杆，所以胜率越来越高。这就要求了仓位要有一致性，随着行权到期日的临近，你持有10万的头寸，可能和刚开始持有5万的头寸，反映出来的账户风险和波动是差不多的。当然GAMMA风险这些要用另外的手段来规避。
新策略已经开始了模拟盘测试
对这个效果我很满意，新策略最大的改变有以下几点，1，自适应总仓位控制。2、在每一笔开仓以前就做好了压力测试。3、风险超过压力测试范围会逐步减仓。可以看出经过了今年3个月的回撤策略更加保守。策略依然没有加入对冲，这是我一直以来的认知。更多的细节就不说了，我也在不停地验证。
比较遗憾的是过几天清明节又要全部清仓了，整个4月做起来就特别的憋屈，因为做不了几天五一节又要清仓，出于安全考虑我还是坚定不移的执行节假日不留仓。赚钱只能靠下半年了。希望各位都能坚持下来。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000435s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000602s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.002432s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000332s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000515s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000563s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000530s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 505933 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000359s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1775029853 WHERE `id` = 505933 [ RunTime:0.015487s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000267s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 505933 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000512s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 505933 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000377s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 505933 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002390s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 505933 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000711s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 505933 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001497s ]
0.093286s