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2026年4月5日投资复盘:四月行情分两截

  • 2026-04-05 12:27:55
2026年4月5日投资复盘:四月行情分两截
省流阅读：待验证观点，以五月中旬川普访华为终点，四月行情暂时分为前后两段，前半段是下跌和加速下跌，转折点是御林军救市，后半段是犹豫和反弹。
如图所示。本周上证指数依然伴随着中东局势震荡，先涨后跌。周初一度填补了之前跳空低开的缺口，之后下跌，与岛型反转形态失之交臂，看起来更像是下跌中继。技术上判断下周继续下跌概率较大。
本周核心事件依然是中东冲突导致的油气剧烈波动。北美原油主力合约再次涨到100以上。并且形态上有继续上涨的趋势。
但是，国内原油却截然不同，在北美原油大涨的时候国内原油冲高回落，北美下跌的时候国内跌的更多。在三月下旬的高点前后，形成明显的反转迹象。造成这种情况的主要原因，是伊朗对中外油轮的区别对待，即有计划的允许中国等少数国家的货船通过海峡。而这背后，与中国对伊朗的支持有关。虽然没有明确说明，但是对军民两用产品支持的未反对，和对伊朗独立自主的明确支持，都能让市场感受到背后的含义。
从国外国内油价的走势上看，中东冲突对中外的影响是不同的，加上国际环境和国力因素，甚至可以说，这就是两个大国博弈的区域代理。
回到A股。A股市场上的资金可以简单的分为御林军、机构、游资和散户。我们可以再简单的理解，御林军态度偏中，机构态度和心理偏外，游资跟大势做小局，散户追涨杀跌。在目前大国博弈区域代理的环境下，外部态度偏空，客观市场环境也偏空，位置和环境还没到御林军出手的时候。因此A股很难有独立走势。
因此，继续坚持之前判断，以五月中旬川普访华为终点，四月行情暂时分为前后两段，前半段是下跌和加速下跌，转折点是御林军救市，后半段是犹豫和反弹。御林军掌握更多的信息和资金，他们救市的时候，或者是中东冲突出现转折之前。或者是指数出现恐慌之后。如果四月没有出现这些情况，那就继续看五月。当然，以上待验证，需边走边看边调整。
综上。下周谨慎观察，A股还没到可以乐观的时候；中东事件参与难度加大，也要保持谨慎；其中油气化工看川普和伊朗怎么表现；煤和农业被政府保护的太好，短期波动不大，长期趋势还很难判断。
以上，祝大家周末和清明愉快，我们下周见。
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000973s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001374s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000691s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000661s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001304s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000519s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001485s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 508554 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001050s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1775569463 WHERE `id` = 508554 [ RunTime:0.001884s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003491s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 508554 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001291s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 508554 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002300s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 508554 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.015007s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 508554 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.026360s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 508554 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002820s ]
0.224318s