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2026年第14周总结:行情逐渐对冲突脱敏

  • 2026-04-12 19:40:35
2026年第14周总结:行情逐渐对冲突脱敏
美伊谈判不出意料的没有谈妥！
这个消息会对市场产生什么影响，在于市场对美伊谈判的预期。如果市场预期是能谈妥，那显然这是个大利空，下周行情有向下二次探底的需要；如果市场本来就没有预期能谈妥，那谈妥了是利好，没谈妥也不会影响到市场。
从周五A股冲高回落的走势上看，市场并不对美伊谈判能一次就谈出结果抱有期望，因此，我判断周末美伊谈判的消息不会对下周A股的走势产生太大的影响。
事实上，只要双方愿意谈，就意味着局势不会往更坏的方向发展，因为很显然，双方都有点打不动了。既然这样，虽然谈判和冲突可能还会反反复复一段时间，但是行情可能会逐渐对冲突脱敏。
就像近年来我们经历的多次重大突发事件一样，每次重大突发事件刚发生的时候都被渲染成世界末日，但是实际上，每次突发事件都只是阶段性的扰动市场一段时间，到最后市场都会对这些事件不再敏感，仿佛这些事件从来就没有发生。
当然，每次突发事件都会对我们的账户产生冲击，我们控制不了突发事件的发生，唯一能做的，就是利用好突发事件，调整投资策略，优化账户结构，哪怕做不到在波动性和不确定性中受益，至少做到不被波动性和不确定性打败。
本周基金账户上涨3.01%，年度累计涨幅3.04%。本周基金持仓做了一些调整，减持了消费类基金，增持了资源类基金，逻辑就是原油价格将持续维持高位，上游资源有涨价预期，并且受益于原油供应紧张，全球供应链将受到冲击，化工、有色金属等行业出口优势将进一步加强。
本周证券账户上涨2.32%，年度累计跌幅6.87%。本周港股迎来反弹，但是红利板块陷入调整，整体而言，证券账户配置的恒生科技ETF和红利低波ETF具备较强的安全边际，其中恒生科技ETF向上修复的空间比较大。
固收账户周涨0.69%，年度累计涨幅1.3%。受益于权益类持仓大幅反弹，本周固收类基金也强劲修复。
期权账户周跌1.42%，年度累计跌幅3.37%。期权账户调整为对冲风险策略之后，主要任务就不是盈利了，而是在市场陷入调整时能降低账户的整体回撤。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000546s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000723s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000372s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000336s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000543s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000319s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000565s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 513523 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000439s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1776042647 WHERE `id` = 513523 [ RunTime:0.002066s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000282s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513523 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000468s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 513523 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000409s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513523 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001050s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513523 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001161s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513523 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000681s ]
0.131680s