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港股新股进入吃肉行情

  • 2026-04-20 23:48:03
港股新股进入吃肉行情
一、吃肉行情
今天的新股02476胜宏科技暗盘大涨60%，一手盈利1.26万，相当的舒服甚至有点超出预期，在盘面中我顺带在富途和辉立之间赚了个利差，两者暗盘价格一直有500元/手左右的价差，基本属于又吃又拿。
目前4月上市的4个新股表现都非常好，其中涨幅最为炸裂的是群核科技，涨势就如名字中的核势能那样，首日涨144%的情况下，今天竟然又翻倍了，我一度以为看错了。
看看接下来新股表现如何，珍惜这波行情，能吃上肉时放开吃别等要吃面时后悔没有吃过肉。
二、霍尔姆兹海峡变局多
美以伊战争发展到现在几乎是一天一个变，每天的新闻信息基本就是不断的反转。针对这样的情况，我个人的2个思考：
1、跟上华尔街的逻辑，只正向理解特朗普表达的字面意思。这轮行情淋漓的上涨，可以理解为华尔街只正面理解特朗普表达的字面意思，你只要敢说我就敢信，能得到互相的印证那就大信特信。这也是这波开始时我踏错步点的重要原因，我想多了。
2、通胀压力山大，霍尔姆兹海峡的封锁是客观存在的，近2个月的封锁让全球的经济原料成本大幅上升且不可逆，最终还是需要大家一同买单，目前的上升我依然认为只是短趋势的表现，不是反转，下半年的经济压力远超目前预测层面的乐观。
因此，对于目前的股市我就是墙头草思维，趋势仓位就是见好就收，长持仓位不受其影响。
三、概率套利
结合上面提到的逻辑，我在Polymarket这个预测市场中也尝试性的参与了关于霍尔姆兹海峡何时恢复正常通行这个预测。
目前预测4月底恢复的概率是28%，5月是68%，6月80%。4月的概率28%我认为就是大家对于战争走势的乐观判断，离月底还有10天，7天平均通行量回到战争前水平的窗口越来越短了，因此我评估这种概率只是个位数。
如下图显示投入10刀如果正确能获得14.29刀，即正确后有42.9%的盈利空间，我就拿点小资金参与一下，看看我的认知有没有机会获利。
感谢今天港新发了大红包。
今天就这些。
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  137. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/driver/File.php ( 2.41 KB )
  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000392s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000658s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.028298s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000321s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000730s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000273s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000746s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 519860 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001242s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1776707744 WHERE `id` = 519860 [ RunTime:0.007992s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000304s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 519860 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000487s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 519860 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001204s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 519860 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002930s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 519860 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.005203s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 519860 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004491s ]
0.135506s