乳清蛋白最新行情及预测-2026年5月8日

Summary of China's Quarterly Whey Protein Import Volume and Major Import Sources in 2026.

1）因为2月份春节假期原因，部分乳清蛋白的船期延迟到3月报关，所以3月份环比增加较多，相信2季度的月实际进口量会跌破3000吨。

Due to the Spring Festival in February, some whey protein shipments were delayed until March for customs clearance, leading to a significant month-on-month increase in March. It is expected that the actual monthly import volume in Q2 will drop below 3,000 tons.

2）德国、新西兰和美国名列三甲，其中美国因为关税原因，26年一季度进口量同比减少44.6%，进口量下降明显。

Germany, New Zealand and the United States rank among the top three. Affected by tariffs, U.S. imports dropped by 44.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, posting a marked decline.

3）随着国产蛋白工厂的陆续投产，加上波兰、白俄等国家新晋蛋白工厂的货源陆续到港，这些新品牌均选择以更高性价比来切入市场，普遍报价在160-170元之间。相比主流品牌，价格优势非常明显，虽然数量不多，但这也给蛋白终端客户在和原有80粉品牌供应商谈论期货价格时，增加了更多筹码。

With the successive commissioning of domestic protein factories and the arrival of goods from new protein factories in countries such as Poland and Belarus, these new brands have all chosen to enter the market with higher cost performance, with a general quotation between ￥160-170. Compared with mainstream brands, they have obvious price advantages; although the quantity is small, this also gives protein end customers more leverage when negotiating futures prices with existing WPC 80 brand suppliers.

4）我们在上一期蛋白文章中指出，我们需要时刻关注国内蛋白粉的进口量数据，3000吨是供需平衡线。26年一季度，月平均进口量是2733吨，显示国内供应依然偏紧。

As we pointed out in the previous protein article, we need to pay close attention to the import volume data of domestic protein powder at all times, with 3,000 tons being the supply-demand balance line. In Q1 2026, the average monthly import volume was 2,733 tons, indicating that domestic supply is still tight.

2、国际市场行情介绍：

Introduction to International Market Trends:

1）欧洲乳清蛋白80粉价格最近几周价格坚挺，主流报价在23500-25000欧元（换算成人民币成本大约为224-238元，关税为5%）之间，最近两周，欧洲有部分厂家开始试探报出3季度发船价格，但供应数量有限。

The price of European whey protein concentrate 80 has remained firm in recent weeks, with mainstream quotations between €23,500-25,000（converted into RMB, the cost is approximately ￥224-238, with a tariff rate of 5%）. In the past two weeks, some European manufacturers have begun to tentatively quote prices for Q3 shipments, but the supply quantity is limited.

2）美国乳清蛋白80粉主流价格在26000-28000美金（换算成人民币成本大约为￥230-248，关税为15%）之间，跟欧洲行情类似，经过年后的一轮快速上涨后，市场都需要时间来消化这一轮涨幅。

The mainstream price of U.S. whey protein concentrate 80 is between $27,000-29,000（converted into RMB, the cost is approximately ￥230-248, with a tariff rate of 15%）, similar to the European market. After a round of rapid price increases after the Spring Festival, the market needs time to digest this round of increases.

3）恒天然保持了一贯的风格，每个月都只有零散货源竞价出售，对于国内市场供应的贡献寥寥。

Fonterra has maintained its consistent style, with only scattered supplies sold by auction every month, contributing little to the domestic market supply.

未来行情预测：

Future Market Forecast:

1、最近几周，国外期货价格经过一轮暴涨趋于稳定，买方和卖方都需要时间消化本轮涨幅。5月和6月，是锁定欧洲产地3季度发船期货价格的最后窗口期，到本月底前，26年年底的期货采购成本大部分都会确认，我们相信价格不会低于2季度的报价，唯一不确定的就是涨幅多少。

In recent weeks, foreign futures prices have stabilized after a round of sharp increases, and both buyers and sellers need time to digest this round of increases. May and June are the final window period to lock in the futures prices for Q3 shipments from European origins. By the end of this month, most of the futures procurement costs for the end of 2026 will be confirmed. We believe the price will not be lower than the quotation in Q2, and the only uncertainty is the extent of the increase.

2、国内乳清蛋白主流报价在210-230元之间，但除了执行旧合同之外，新客户出货速度一般。原因在于国内规模以上蛋白客户3季度之前均已备好库存，目前采购现货的多为中小客户，购买数量不多。但我们需要关注的一点就是：随着乳清蛋白涨价的压力逐渐传递到终端，终端的蛋白粉品牌都在上调价格，而消费者都是买涨不买跌的，导致这些大客户这几个月销售非常之好，甚至有个客户告诉我们，他们今年一个月的蛋白销售量，已经相当于去年全年的销售数量。那么，按照之前销售计划的备货，工厂库存是否还能够坚持到3季度末？

The mainstream quotation of domestic whey protein is between 210-230 yuan, but except for the execution of old contracts, the shipment speed for new customers is average. The reason is that domestic large-scale protein customers have all prepared inventory before Q3, and most of the current spot purchasers are small and medium-sized customers with small purchase quantities. However, one point we need to pay attention to is: as the pressure of whey protein price increases is gradually transmitted to the terminal, terminal protein powder brands are all raising prices. Consumers tend to buy when prices rise and not when they fall, leading to very good sales of these large customers in recent months. Even one customer told us that their monthly protein sales volume this year is equivalent to the total annual sales volume of last year. Then, can the inventory prepared according to the previous sales plan last until the end of Q3?

而春节前两个月，由于对未来价格走势的不确定，国内很多客户都暂停采购而选择观望，这部分缺口会在2季度到港数字中反映出来。随着流通渠道的库存在这两个月消化完毕，3季度对于采购方而言，可能又是一个艰难的开始。

In the two months before the Spring Festival, due to uncertainty about future price trends, many domestic customers suspended purchases and chose to wait and see, and this gap will be reflected in the arrival data in Q2. As the inventory in the circulation channels is digested in these two months, Q3 may be another difficult start for purchasers.

3、好消息是，酵母蛋白、鸡蛋白、牛奶蛋白和酪蛋白，由于其价格优势，有越来越多的客户开始考虑这些蛋白，替换掉一部分乳清蛋白；再加上各国乳清蛋白新工厂26-27年度陆续投产（详见我们4月27号发表文章），会缓解部分的供应压力，也会打压乳清蛋白的上涨势头。那么问题来了，价格拐点和库存见底，哪个会更快来到？

The good news is that due to their price advantages, more and more customers are beginning to consider yeast protein, egg protein, milk protein and casein to replace part of the whey protein. In addition, new whey protein factories in various countries will be put into production one after another in 2026-2027 (see our article published on April 27 for details), which will ease part of the supply pressure and also curb the upward momentum of whey protein. Then the question arises: which will come faster, the price inflection point or the inventory bottoming out?

4、对于蛋白流通渠道来说，我还是坚持我的看法，不要去赌拐点什么时候会到，不要去赚最后一个铜板，现货操作，落袋为安。但对于刚需客户来说，建仓前采购朋友们多请示、多汇报，让老板签个字，别怕麻烦。

For the protein circulation channels, I still adhere to my view: do not bet on when the inflection point will come, do not try to earn the last profit, operate with spot goods and lock in profits when available. However, for customers with rigid procurement demand, purchasers should consult and report more frequently before building inventory positions, get approval signed by management, and do not shy away from trivial formalities.

5、国际上乳清蛋白主流产能的提升，必然带来乳清粉产能的下降，按照1:7左右的蛋白换算关系，每增产1000吨WPC80，就意味着减少7000吨的乳清粉的产能，这一点已经在最近几个月国际主流乳清粉工厂期货报价中体现出来。我们在2月公众号文章（详见我司2月11日发表文章）中就开始预警，乳清粉后边要大涨，结果证明我们的预测是对的。乳清粉已经从年前10-13元的报价，快速拉升到13.5-16.5元以上。但乳清粉价格上涨过快，国内有部分客户已经开始寻求替代方案，比如巧克力企业考虑用乳糖替代乳清粉，冰淇淋企业考虑用脱脂粉替代乳清粉，乳清粉价格三季度是否还能持续上涨，还存在不确定性。未来几个月，乳清粉进口数量和客户减少用量之间的博弈，将决定乳清粉的价格走势。

The increase in the mainstream production capacity of whey protein internationally will inevitably lead to a decrease in the production capacity of whey powder. According to the protein conversion ratio of about 1:7, every 1,000 tons increase in WPC80 production will mean a reduction of 7,000 tons in whey powder. This has been reflected in the futures quotes of major international whey powder factories in recent months. We began to warn in our official account article in February (see the article published on February 11 for details) that whey powder prices would rise sharply later, and the results have proved that our prediction is correct. The price of whey powder has quickly risen from ￥10-13 before the Spring Festival to more than ￥13.5-16.5. However, whey powder prices have risen too rapidly, and some customers have started to seek alternatives. For instance, chocolate manufacturers are considering replacing whey powder with lactose, while ice cream producers are looking to use skimmed milk powder instead. It remains uncertain whether whey powder prices can keep rising in the third quarter. In the coming months, the game between import volumes of whey powder and reduced consumption by customers will determine its future price trend.

备注：本文所有内容为作者个人观点，仅作行业交流学习用，勿做商业用途，不构成任何投资建议，感谢各位同行专家在本文撰写过程中给予的资讯和意见支持！

Note: All content in this article represents the author's personal views. It is intended solely for industry exchange and learning purposes, shall not be used for commercial purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. We would like to thank all peer experts for their information and opinions provided during the writing of this article!

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