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迎峰度夏,动力煤行情预判

  • 2026-05-12 18:46:32
迎峰度夏,动力煤行情预判
今年以来，国内动力煤市场呈现淡季不淡的走势，阶段性涨幅明显。五一节后，市场预期偏乐观，煤炭供方挺价意愿较强。行业利润回暖后，煤矿生产、流通环节出货积极性同步提升。环渤海港口锚地船舶数量偏高，叠加集港发运成本上行，市场情绪乐观，煤价重心稳步上移；港口行情带动站台发运活跃度，多数煤矿出货顺畅，坑口煤价坚挺，局部煤矿报价上调。
下游需求端分化运行，气温回升带动火电日耗缓慢增加。电厂完成中低卡长协煤兑现后，需要补充采购高卡低硫煤调配热值。目前距离迎峰度夏用电高峰期仅剩一个月，电厂补库、提卡需求明确，刚性采购意愿较强，环渤海港口在港及预报船舶高位运行，直观反映下游抢运节奏。非电领域方面，煤化工、建材行业用煤需求刚性，采购节奏平稳。库存层面，沿海电厂垒库进度不及往年，同比库存偏低，补库诉求迫切；而当前处于用电淡季，火电日耗不高，电厂长协兑现比例偏高，沿海终端库存被动累积。现货价格走高后，终端对高价现货接受度变差，更加侧重采购长协煤。
运输及港口端，大秦线检修结束后，环渤海港口调入量增加，港口库存持续累积，部分码头出现疏港压力。煤炭发运成本对煤价形成硬性支撑，坑口煤价上涨叠加铁路运费上调，港口到货成本抬升，部分贸易商出现发运倒挂。受此影响，部分贸易商惜货延后出货；也有贸易商顾虑价格回调，主动加快出货，致使煤价涨幅收窄。现阶段供方出货意愿提升，下游现货采购意愿偏弱，市场多空博弈加剧，现货交投活跃度回落，煤价上涨动能有所减弱。
国际能源市场方面，美伊以地缘局势紧张，市场担忧化石燃料供应收缩，国际油气价格大涨，带动大宗商品能源品价格上行，动力煤受外部行情联动影响。油气涨价推高生产用工成本，市场转向煤炭作为替代燃料；海外天然气价格高位，欧亚多国推行气转煤，日韩、菲律宾等国家放宽燃煤发电限制，加大印尼煤采购，造成货源分流。印尼煤供给收紧、价格优势减弱，国内进口煤到货量下滑，利好本土煤炭市场。
综合来看，现阶段市场多空因素交织。短期利空因素集中在市场交投冷清、中下游库存持续累积，市场承压运行；利好支撑包括进口煤性价比偏弱、行业整体库存同比偏低、消费表现向好，外加运费上调夯实成本底部。行情走势方面，本月中旬煤价无大跌基础，以震荡整理为主；短期调整结束后，伴随气温升高、迎峰度夏补库需求释放，煤价仍存在上行空间。后续重点关注煤炭发运量、库存累积速度以及终端补库节奏。
免责声明：本文基于公开数据整理分析，仅供行业交流参考，不构成投资建议。煤炭价格受多重因素影响，实际走势可能存在偏差。
责编：张骉
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000957s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001616s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000719s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000687s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001444s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000754s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001433s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 534589 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001046s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1778593041 WHERE `id` = 534589 [ RunTime:0.036441s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005451s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 534589 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001302s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 534589 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001139s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 534589 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001546s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 534589 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002123s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 534589 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.067516s ]
0.225023s