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从链上数据的角度,聊聊对短期行情的见解

  • 2026-05-16 17:29:02
从链上数据的角度,聊聊对短期行情的见解
BTC正在连续考验STH-RP的支撑作用。在没有突破之前，STH-RP & TMMP 是双重阻力，反过来现在变成了双重支撑。当价格接近成本基础附近时抛压减少，证明当前市场情绪还比较稳定。  我们知道，市场总会选择朝阻力更小的方向发展，如果在STH-RP持续支撑，即表示向下有阻力，那么就继续向上直到下一个阻力区。  即便跌破支撑，也不意味着就一定是奔着破新低而去。在熊市后半段，价格围绕STH-RP上下徘徊是很常见的情况。  即便我们不考虑目前在6.6w-7w之间有一段筹码密集区（大资金抄底区间），要跌出新低至少要先跌破 <10y_RP —— 一个在今年2-3月市场极端恐慌情绪下被反复考验的支撑位。  每一轮熊市周期都有不同的投资者心理承受极限，之前是可能是Realized Price，LTH-RP等等；但在本轮周期，至少目前看来它就是 <10y_RP（图2）。  不过，短期来看BTC有较大概率要进入一段调整期。  RMMPC中蓝线（美国区）已经明显低于红线（亚洲区），同时Binance USDC/USDT 汇率大于1；Coinbase 溢价指数为负（图3/图4）；   在之前的推文中有提到，如果“美元购买力观测三大核心指标” 的3条全符合，那么BTC在大概率“要涨不动”了；至少不会像之前那么强势，或者以横带跌都有可能。  总之，我仍然坚持：在多项大级别数据已给出提示的前提下，回调是机会不是风险的这一观点。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000474s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000571s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000251s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000294s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000490s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000237s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000583s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 537329 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001332s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1778932497 WHERE `id` = 537329 [ RunTime:0.001496s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000294s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537329 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000536s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 537329 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000551s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537329 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002965s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537329 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.006960s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537329 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004914s ]
0.088790s