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下周行情预判(8.24-8.28)

  • 2026-08-22 04:00:08
下周行情预判(8.24-8.28)
    本周一的大阳容易让人产生误判，觉得是不是要向上突破了，但其实只是一个小的变盘点向上而已。后面几天的走势最终还是印证了我上周的判断，特别是周三的放量下杀，打到3880附近支撑位为止，我认为本轮的调整才算是差不多了。
    验证结果不要拘泥于一两天，要从更高的维度去看，比如是否有效突破关键点位，在不同时间级别处于什么位置，终归是小级别服务于大级别，要相信趋势的力量。
     下周我认为调整已经差不多了，特别是这几天缩量，下周看整体震荡向上走势（周初有变盘或许还要杀一下），但强度暂时看比较保守。这一浪需要有效突破4000才行。
    方向上，周四受海外消息影响，创新药大涨，我也是提示朋友们做了减仓处理，后面慢慢加回来就好，趋势不变的，耐心拿好。
    证券仍然是被无形的手压制的状态，这个方向不论从结构、业绩角度我认为都已经具备启动条件，压得了一时压不了永久。之前也说了，一旦启动应该会很快，可能需要一个消息的刺激。
    科技方面，上周我就提了这里要再杀一下，结果就是两天跌了上半月的涨幅。后面这里我认为整体风险已经释放差不多了，但创业板和科创板要分开来看，创业板我认为具备重新配置的条件，科创板还需要等待。重新介入也不宜作为主要配置方向，科技这里是主推指数的副攻不是主攻，切记这一点，买它更多是从指数联动的弹性角度进行的配置。
    题材方面，最近轮动比较快，但其实是不同模式内的方向选择。比如医药这种就属于长趋势板块，做的资金大概率是机构。而农业相关的大概率是那部分活跃机构和游资。选择炒什么板块先想好是什么模式，什么类型资金介入。我认为后面两周主要就看消费电子方向，瞄准果链做一下短线。另外就是旅游，可以挖掘一下个股。
    至于未来整体走势，尽管我认为再回踩一下前低比较好，但从时间角度我认为又已经不够了，但不论怎么走，未来几周形式应当就明了了。换句话说，当前指数下跌空间有限，向下回踩的概率极小。而因此也会影响至少到本年的指数高点情况，不回踩的话至少今年大概率是到不了年度预测的高点了，如果有延长浪的话，明年上半年是有可能的。但具体怎么走取决于指数结构，只能边走边看了。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000996s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001410s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000612s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000630s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001348s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000542s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001486s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 569780 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001006s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1787352891 WHERE `id` = 569780 [ RunTime:0.002968s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000650s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 569780 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001051s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 569780 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001058s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 569780 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002355s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 569780 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.009927s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 569780 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.013717s ]
0.202681s