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2026年苹果行情基本可以确定了!

  • 2026-03-06 04:20:10
2026年苹果行情基本可以确定了!
目前的苹果，跟2014/2015年度有很大相似性，都是新果上市时价格偏高，都是入库量大，都是果农入库占比高；今年面临的情况跟2015年很相似：库存量大，出库缓慢，春节偏晚。
另外，今年比15年新增两个不利条件：
1、疫情影响，疫情在两个层面上对苹果产生不利影响。
2、今年柑橘类价格低迷，很大程度上挤压了苹果的消费市场。今年柑橘类价格只要两三元，柑橘类因为不耐储存，绝大部分会在春节前集中上市消化，时间短数量多，只能不计成本的甩卖，这在很大程度上挤压了苹果的消费市场。这是今年冬天苹果走货慢的一个重要原因。
后市分析，从目前的库存量以及走货速度来说，春节前如果能消化50%库存可能就算不错了，可事实上今年春节备货量远远小于去年备货虽然春节卖脱销但正月初二市场紧急补货也是这么多年罕见的。
但正月初五初六时候各地市场苹果上货量已经爆满，走货再次陷入慢牛的死局。       
春节之后进入3月份，5月份南方时令水果上市，留给苹果的消费旺季只有两三个月时间，加上果农普遍存在低价死扛的心态，今年想要价格上涨，基本不可能了。  
大概率是4月份之前缓慢下跌，4月份以后存货果农心态崩溃开始甩卖，价格大幅下跌。五月份开始西北部分地区开始清库了，所以留给库存苹果的时间不足100天了。  
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000423s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
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  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000197s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000505s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 490350 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000403s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1772751561 WHERE `id` = 490350 [ RunTime:0.004684s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000231s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 490350 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000370s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 490350 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000654s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 490350 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001048s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 490350 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000840s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 490350 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001251s ]
0.080479s