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行情进入震荡阶段,谨防短期回调

  • 2026-03-17 17:16:41
行情进入震荡阶段,谨防短期回调
写作是为了帮助思考捋顺思维。
从文华指数1小时图和分时图明显看到近期市场处于震荡阶段，虽然也创出阶段新高但是明显的力度和幅度是衰减的，但是并不代表这波上涨行情结束，只是价格走到高位需要消化和修复一下，按照走势结构来说应该还会有冲高过程，只是因为前期大部分品种快速大幅上涨，一旦出现调整可能会越来越剧烈，多单是需要适当止盈和调整仓位的。
同时因为品种的逻辑不同以及影响大小不同，一定会产生分歧，某些品种会继续强势，某些跟风品种缺乏逻辑支撑可能就此结束上涨进入构筑头部的阶段，具体如何分辨除了要研判基本面的逻辑之外可以看走势形态，看更大周期比如周线、月线来判断方向，没有完成底部构筑的只能定义为下跌过程中的反弹，这样的品种就需要谨慎对待。
从更小周期来看走势的变化，明显能看到虽然每次都创出新高，但是上涨的力度（角度）以及幅度（空间）是逐步减弱的，后面如果不能继续新高甚至跌破震荡小区间的低点，那么短线回调就得到确认，其实就目前震荡行情过程中，前期上涨的品种很多已经开始回调了，对于波段选手来说是应该止盈观望的时间，不参与震荡是波段操作的重点。当前这个阶段不适合做空，回调不代表行情反转，我以前就很贪心既然知道要回调那么做空没问题，但是现实是经常被打脸，所以现在我是大趋势上涨不做多不做空，只做单边。
就比如氧化铝，小周期走势明显要回落，这个时候减仓多单是没有问题（如果大周期看涨也是可以不动的），如果因为贪心想要这波下跌的利润去做空，那么当行情突然反转的时候出于思维惯性很难及时清理空单转为多单的，因此很容易被套，本来是做多的行情结果反而亏损，这就是很多人赔钱的原因之一，一旦上涨行情过程中的回调一般都会比较短暂，而转涨都会比较迅速和强烈的。
综合来看这几天行情进入震荡阶段，这个时期交易是比较难做的，多空方向不好判断很容易被反复打脸，我个人理解的最好应对方法就是回避，当然对于后面仍然看涨的品种可以在震荡区间低点来参与。而对于前期上涨过快过高的，如果出现震荡滞涨就需要引起足够重视。
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  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000562s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000892s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000319s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000325s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000472s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000230s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000733s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 496544 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000433s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1773791918 WHERE `id` = 496544 [ RunTime:0.002363s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000278s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 496544 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000465s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 496544 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000446s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 496544 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.003781s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 496544 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000687s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 496544 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000698s ]
0.083112s