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短期油脂行情的最大不确定性来自哪里?

  • 2026-03-28 03:02:34
短期油脂行情的最大不确定性来自哪里?
导读：本周油脂价格以震荡整理为主，价格受国际原油价格波动影响较为突出，这点可以从油脂指数和原油价格走势中不难看出。具体如下：
本周追踪的机构席位豆油持仓数据一览如下：
本周已公布的基本面数据：
数据显示：
豆油主因油厂检修 + 大豆到港延迟，压榨量下降、产出减少（本周延续去库），棕榈油延续本周去库，菜油因进口菜籽增加及开机率提升小幅累库但整体仍偏低。
基差方面：豆油基差高位持稳；菜油基差持续走强；棕榈油基差由负转正，期现结构明显改善。
    综上：
    需求侧目前市场关注的重点依旧是美国即将推出的生物柴油掺混政策的具体情况。美伊战争未来的走向对原油价格的影响会直接传导至三大油脂。短期油脂的价格走势主导因素在原油价格（这一点在第一张图中就能体现），供需的影响占比相对于原油价格来说主导因素要稍低一些。每一轮主导价格走势的因素侧重点不同、所以对行情的看法也要及时的调整。
    评论区来聊一聊你对接下来油脂的看法~
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