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原木现货暴涨,多空博弈升级,旺季行情要变天?

  • 2026-04-16 13:38:31
原木现货暴涨,多空博弈升级,旺季行情要变天?

淘木网平台通过不断推动木材产业链升级，成为行业内最受信赖的一站式木材解决方案服务商之一。全网货源随时查看、行情报价放心交易，买木材就上淘木网！

核心信号：需求回升+港口库存低位，原木现货价格持续走高，多空观点激烈交锋，行业行情扑朔迷离！
2026年政府工作报告定调：GDP增速调整至4.5%-5.0%，政策侧重稳预期、调结构，同时扩大政策性金融工具规模。
行情走势：震荡偏强，短期看涨、中期承压
  • 短期：需求回升+港口库存低位，现货价格走高；
  • 中期：供给回升、需求缓慢复苏，地产新开工偏弱拖累需求，港口库存将高位去库。
核心数据速递
• 供给：3月27日当周到港34.1万方，本周预计达53万方以上，高于近年同期；
• 库存：3月27日当周针叶原木库存环比减6万方，山东港口去库为主；
• 现货：日照3.9米中A辐射松涨30元至810元/方，云杉同步上涨，成本端强力支撑。
 多空博弈：看涨看空各有依据
  • 看涨：货源紧张、库存下滑，新西兰外盘报价高位，能源成本居高不下，供需紧张未缓解；
  • 看空：供应增加、需求弱复苏，针叶原木库存升至313万方，地产疲软拖累需求。
原木市场多空博弈激烈，短期受成本与供需支撑偏强，中期需警惕库存与地产拖累。
免责声明：本文数据来源于公开市场信息，仅供行业参，不构成任何投资、经营决策建议。木材价格受政策、天气等突发因素影响可能存在波动，相关从业者请结合自身实际情况理性布局，风险自担。，本公众号不负责。转载需注明来源。

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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000831s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000983s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000315s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000339s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000481s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000199s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000588s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 516698 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000419s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1776343079 WHERE `id` = 516698 [ RunTime:0.012781s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000789s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516698 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001474s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 516698 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003633s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516698 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.003666s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516698 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.008194s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516698 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.013724s ]
0.200208s