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小周行情会有上冲,谨慎关注确定性机会

  • 2026-04-25 15:28:27
小周行情会有上冲,谨慎关注确定性机会
写作是为了帮助思考捋顺思维。
经过上周的震荡调整，这周文华指数开始缓慢回升，当前的行情波动对地缘冲突消息有些脱敏不像之前那样敏感，主要是因为没有出现明朗的局势，场内外相对谨慎观望为主，而场内品种也是在继续分化，基本面强的品种调整较小（如原油相关性更高的品种聚酯链、烯烃和苯乙烯），弱一些的品种就开始价格回归（如PVC），市场暂时缺少强势品种，体现在指数上，可以看到日K线回升的力度是相对较弱的，目前只能定义为仍处于震荡区间中，需要关注的是价格是否能突破前面的高点。
放到1小时周期来看，从高点开始已经出现了明显的高低点逐步下降的下跌趋势，就看后面能否突破A点打破下跌趋势，当然这只是在1小时周期上的趋势，对于大周期来说也只是震荡而已，所以整体上下周是谨慎看多的，大方向上涨还没有明确改变之前，在小周期还是要保持和趋势一致的。
地缘冲突虽然暂时熄火但是暗流涌动，短期结束不太现实，对供应端的冲击是会持续一段时间的，在这个前提下与原油相关比较高的聚酯链和苯乙烯应该是上涨确定性较高的品种。
因为刚刚换月到09合约走势还没有稳定，这里以加权指数来展示，从1小时周期走势来看目前已经处于震荡区间的末端，如果地缘冲突继续就会引发上涨，即使冲突暂停因为对供应端实质影响上涨也会来临，只是方式不同而已，在1小时周期走势上已经出现了不再创新低，低点开始抬升的走势，只要能持续甚至突破前面高点，那么就会开始新一波上涨。
从日线图来看，目前的震荡区间也是中继阶段，即使是构筑顶部形态也会有上冲的过程，因此在震荡区间的低点是相对较好的买入机会。
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2026/4/24国产蓝莓行情价格

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  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000545s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000663s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000297s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000297s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000539s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000274s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000691s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 522797 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002075s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1777107002 WHERE `id` = 522797 [ RunTime:0.004452s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000329s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 522797 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.009378s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 522797 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.016671s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 522797 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.023212s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 522797 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.009032s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 522797 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.013257s ]
0.150288s