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如何在震荡区间寻找行情拐点?

  • 2026-05-17 12:53:23
如何在震荡区间寻找行情拐点?
写作是为了帮助思考捋顺思维。
以前文章咱们探讨过价格走势形态主要分趋势和震荡两种，趋势行情是获利最容易最轻松的阶段，而震荡是很多人的噩梦，当然震荡行情也有对应策略，但是相对于趋势行情的好处就差远了。当价格不再持续上涨或下跌开始在一个区域震荡时，标志着行情由趋势转入震荡，那什么时候行情会由震荡转向趋势，如何抓住行情拐点呢？
我们以原油上涨为例来探讨（下跌反之），首先所谓震荡区间一定是在某个价位区间产生的箱体，但是行情没走出来之前是看不到这个箱体的，所以一段行情上涨之后出现的第一次大幅下跌的低点可能就是这个箱体的下沿，因为后面的低点都会参考这个价位。根据以往的经验，一个完整的震荡区间一般都会包含3-4个低点与高点的，如果我们回避震荡只做趋势，那么在第3-4个低点开始关注是比较有性价比的点位，尤其是第4个低点开始逐步抬高可能就是在酝酿新的上涨。
这里的低点不要局限于某个极端的点位，看做一个模糊的点位即可，而且是在震荡区间完成明显的上涨或下跌以后形成的拐点才能算作低点或高点，最好是接近区间的上下沿的高低点为佳，价格产生是随机的，但是一个小区域的价格产生是市场的合力，比单一的点位有效性更高。
虽然当下原油的信息反反复复，但是无论是外盘原油和国内原油从走势上都开始蓄势，未来某个时段再次发动上涨行情是可以期待的。原油系相关的品种也是类似走势，只是不同品种的基本面逻辑不同会有差异，选择品种就需要有心筛选了，而化工品的回调还没有完整结束，在小周期上还没有企稳，可能就需要再耐心等待了，大方向不改变的前提下，最好的策略就是下跌结束的尾声开始布局。
相对来说油脂类的走势要比化工品好一些，尤其是豆油和棕榈油，之所以最看好豆油是因为它的形态更好，还处于突破大箱体的临界点，而且这个箱体的时间更长走势更规律，棕榈油也不错只是没有豆油那么规律，说明它的弹性和活力更足，基本面比豆油确定性更高，走势上也是领先豆油半个身位，而菜油走势要弱很多，因此油脂类可以把棕榈油作为板块的龙头，棕榈油的异动会带动整个油脂板块。
结合日线和1小时周期图来看，目前棕榈油和豆油又来到了震荡区间的低点附近（棕榈油拐点的概率更高，豆油可能还需要反复），小周期下跌出现滞缓并产生震荡一般是价格产生拐点的迹象，又到了震荡区间低点，所以这里是比较好的买入点位，静待价格回升。
近期行情震荡不是很好做，所以降低交易频率耐心等待交易机会出现是当前最好的策略，多看少动。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000668s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000985s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000354s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000281s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000675s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000241s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000610s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 537613 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000503s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1779000871 WHERE `id` = 537613 [ RunTime:0.000876s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000250s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537613 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000477s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 537613 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000490s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537613 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000784s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537613 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001181s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537613 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000821s ]
0.081197s