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麦收季聊卖麦:今年行情啥走势?啥时候出手最划算?

  • 2026-05-24 18:18:20
麦收季聊卖麦:今年行情啥走势?啥时候出手最划算?
芒种一过，豫鲁冀的麦地里就奏响了抢收的号角。这几天后台全是农民朋友的私信：今年新麦刚收，价格咋就比去年低了一截？现在卖怕亏，放久了又怕跌，到底啥时候出手才最划算？
为了给大家问个实底，我这段时间跑了河南周口、山东德州、河北邢台几个主产县区，蹲在收粮点跟粮库保管员、下乡的贸易商、面粉厂采购聊了个透，今天就把实打实的信息整理给大家。
01
当前新麦价格情况
先给大家报个最新的地头价：目前新麦主流收购价在1.18-1.23元/斤之间，比去年这个时候确实便宜了近两毛钱。不少老乡心里打鼓：会不会跌破国家的最低收购价？这里先给大家吃颗定心丸：今年国家小麦最低收购价是1.17元/斤，目前价格还没破线，哪怕后续波动，托市政策也会托住底价，不会让大家的麦子贱卖。
02
今年新麦价格不高的原因
那为啥今年价格涨不起来？我总结了三个最核心的原因：
  1. 就是今年小麦整体丰产。不少地块亩产能到1100斤以上，总产量上去了，市场供应足，价格自然难冲高。
  2. 是面粉厂一点不着急：去年的陈麦库存还没消化完，新麦上市后面粉需求又进入传统淡季，加工厂不需要大量抢收囤货，自然会压价收粮。
  3. 就是进口小麦的冲击，今年进口配额内的小麦到岸价格比国内还低，不少下游企业更愿意买进口麦，也分流了国内新麦的需求。
03
后市行情预判
那后市有没有戏？我跟业内人聊下来，大概率七月会有一波小行情，主要有三个信号：
首先中储粮的轮换收储很快就要启动，会释放一波稳定的收购需求；其次今年优质麦和普通小麦的分化会越来越明显——容重高、面筋质量好的优质麦，价格会一直比普麦高五六分甚至一毛，需求也更稳；另外等到七月中旬过后，面粉厂的陈麦库存耗得差不多了，采购力度肯定会加大，价格会有小幅抬头。
04
给农民朋友的卖粮建议
最后给咱们农民朋友三个实打实的建议，都是根据行情捋出来的：
  • 如果你现在急着用钱，收了麦子就可以出手，目前价格没破托底价，现在卖不亏；
  • 要是不急用钱，家里又有干燥通风的储存条件，不妨等一等，放到七月中下旬再出手，大概率能多卖几分钱一斤，一亩地多赚个几十块；
  • 但我要提醒大家一句：千万别等到秋后再卖——一方面储存久了容易生虫霉变，掉秤又掉价，另一方面秋后新的集中供应上来，价格反而容易往下走，大概率不如七月的行情。
种一亩地，从冬天浇冻水到春天拔节，风吹日晒大半年，每一分钱都是血汗钱。卖粮踩对节点，就能把辛苦钱稳稳装进口袋。希望今年种麦的老乡，都能卖个合适价钱，这一年的付出不白费。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000915s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001627s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.014513s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.002623s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001486s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000597s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001420s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 541165 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001635s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1779620511 WHERE `id` = 541165 [ RunTime:0.013487s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.008176s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541165 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005110s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 541165 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001369s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541165 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.007380s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541165 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.006175s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541165 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000698s ]
0.147029s