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极端行情下的心里按摩

  • 2026-06-20 02:54:44
极端行情下的心里按摩
本周谁跑过大盘了？反正我没跑过。我说的不是沪市指数，这个是老登股。我说的是科创50（14.93%）和创业板（11.13%）。这2个板块被权重控制死死的。创业板涨了85个点其中中际旭创和新易盛就贡献了62个点。科创70个点涨幅，寒武纪一个贡献31个点。海光信息中芯国际概念分别贡献9.86和6.43。贡献度超过一个点的到盛美上海，共计十三支股票，共计贡献了78.05点。
创业板统计贡献度炒过1个点的股票综合，总计18只股票。共计贡献99.79点。
创业板贡献度最大的中际旭创。科创贡献度最大的寒武纪。这两个贡献度超过一半。
如果没买对这几个，基本应该很难赚钱了。所以市场怎么说呢，分化。极端分化。少数权重股拉动指数。指数很好，但是买不对应该难赚钱。
消费股龙头贵州茅台看看走势。
那以后这些光芯的结局是啥？
万物皆周期。上升不言顶，下降不言底。但是看美国要加息了。2022年3月16日开始加息。先下跌一段，然后消息出来，反弹后继续下跌。如果美国要加息，那大概率美股要回落一段。纳指跌幅是16212-10088跌幅38%。股指跌幅是38%那股票跌幅大部分要超过这数值的。
那同时期A股发生了什么？A股提前下跌，2021-12-15日开始走下降通道，跌3/16后只是跳空高开横盘走势很弱的走势。然后继续跌倒4/27后反弹这波是锂电池带动的反弹。然后一路跌倒24/2/5日。
那从24/9/24日启动牛市后，持续了三年了。三年一般牛市就到了头了。2012/12/4日到2015/6/5日，持续606个交易日。
2018/10/19到2021/7/22日，持续673个交易日。易会满当主席。
2024/9/24到2026/6/18日，目前是418个交易日，应该还有个顶部头部建立过程。2015年那轮是靠杠杆资金起来的。2018年那轮靠疫情放水过来的。那这次是靠量化资金做起啦的。从量化手里抢钱是最难的一次了。
目前马上长鑫存储要上市，结合上次中芯国际上市的走势，带虚线大阴线。那在长鑫存储上市之前，A股要拉一波指数护盘。然后上市分流资金。大盘调整。中芯国际上市市值不足万亿。影响尚且如此。那长鑫存储这个可能万亿更多。影响应该更大。
总结一下，长期看是美国AI泡沫啥时候破裂。短期看是长鑫存储啥时候上市。在这些没发生之前，还是这种割裂的走势。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000381s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000608s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000277s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000295s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000500s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000200s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000526s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 555760 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000341s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1781904575 WHERE `id` = 555760 [ RunTime:0.001109s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000220s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 555760 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001133s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 555760 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000867s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 555760 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000782s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 555760 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001633s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 555760 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000992s ]
0.076554s