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2026.8.3 - 后续行情研判

  • 2026-08-04 04:00:02
2026.8.3 - 后续行情研判
如下是沪深300，2019年2月启动至2021年2月结束的走势，以及2024年9月至今的走势。如果AI是结构性行情，至少应该走势完整的3波上涨。而事实上，我认为AI的叙事更强，那么理所应当，AI的走势要大于等于2019年~2021的走势。因此得出结论，第三波上涨还未来到。
而中证1000/2000已经走完3波上涨，更可能是走出一轮反弹，反弹高度比肩左肩。
以中证2000为例，下图是2019年2月启动的中证2000行情，经历3波上涨后跌34%后反弹。
下图是2024年9月启动的中证2000行情，经历三波上涨后，已经跌了32%，同理，可以期待一波反弹行情，预期高度是3600。
后续计划：
当前仓位38%。每周定投持续加仓科技和宽基直至满仓。硬科技可缓定投，预计需要更长的时间消化套牢盘。
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今日股市总结:缩量下结构性行情凸显,AI 与新能源逆势走强

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001109s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001765s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.014838s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000745s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001690s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000610s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001854s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 565597 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005127s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1785793061 WHERE `id` = 565597 [ RunTime:0.080612s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001366s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565597 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.012545s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 565597 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.008177s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565597 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.025994s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565597 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.048590s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565597 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.003204s ]
0.377728s