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下周行情预判(8.10-8.14)

  • 2026-08-10 16:44:26
下周行情预判(8.10-8.14)
    上周的文章认为等待大阳确认，事实上本周三周五都迎来了大涨。结构上底部结构已经走出来了，后面就是耐心等待就好。
    两三周前我说指数是底部，大部分人大概不会信，现在涨了许多人的牛市信仰又回来了。观点随着现实走，而不是基于逻辑分析，是很难在市场上长期活下来的。
    上周文章包括周中，我提示了一些板块，比如教育、军工、商业航天、黄金等，本周都迎来了反弹。而白酒蓝筹股本周也迎来了调整。
    以及科技的反弹机会也盘中提示了。
    经过本周的确认，我认为下周指数会面临回调风险。看文章要一以贯之的看，要理解是什么级别的买卖点。比如之前我说科技见顶，不是代表就会一路下跌，上周的文章也明确表达了指数共振会有反弹机会。如果不能在买卖之前想清楚就很容易跟不上市场节奏，短线变长线，长线变短线，结果就是赚小钱亏大钱。
    上周我也提示了具体的关键点位，周五的上涨到达压力位后明显上涨乏力了，也做了提示。其实这轮调整后，指数回到同一起跑线操作上是容易很多的，双创达到压力位，上证其实也是达到压力位的，不要被指数给骗了，买不对方向看指数涨是很痛苦的。
    下周我认为指数会是震荡调整的走势，外部没有利空条件下，空间不会太大，需要时间来消化本周涨幅。而上周提的这些细分方向我认为都到压力位了，继续直接上的概率不大，注意节奏。
    方向上，仍然看好圈圈和医药（我提的方向要注意顺序，更看好的我会放在前面，而不看好或者看不懂的我不会提）。之前的文章我已经给出了具体板块的买卖时间和配置建议，当然板块不会同时涨，根据比例在保持底仓情况下搞一些活仓来灵活配置也是不错的选择。不知道逻辑是很难拿得住的。
    黄金受周五的数据影响继续上行，我认为已经到位了，不要奢求还有年初那样的主升，有些人跟个钉子户一样一直在黄金里，本质就是守株待兔心理。个人投资者又不是央行，再看好逻辑具体操作上也是有差异的。其实年初逃顶后我就跟朋友们说了，后面这个方向能买但也不适合占太多仓位配置了。牛市不买强势的纯纯是浪费仓位和行情。
    另外，科技这里仍然还是反弹，主升已经结束了。甚至从这个角度上说，本轮牛市也已经结束了，后面这一波就是打扫战场的，但主战场肯定不是科技了。再对科技抱有幻想等到结束的时候可就不只是七月腰斩那么少了。
    继续享受八月的行情吧，祝好。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000600s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000818s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000297s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000267s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000484s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000204s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000549s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 566836 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000370s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1786358916 WHERE `id` = 566836 [ RunTime:0.013074s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000802s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 566836 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001356s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 566836 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001022s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 566836 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.004500s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 566836 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.004573s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 566836 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.006447s ]
0.139921s