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猪价集体飘红!两大利好刺激,有望开启新行情?

  • 2026-08-10 16:18:08
猪价集体飘红!两大利好刺激,有望开启新行情?

立秋已过，暑气未消，沉寂已久的生猪市场却率先吹起了暖风。8月9日，全国猪价再度全线飘红，实现三连涨。金九月份将至，市场消费边际支撑逐步兑现，供应压力或将得到减轻，国内猪价是否有望进入季节性反转的拐点？

结构性修复为主，上下游传导不畅
据中国养猪网监测数据显示，2026年8月7日至9日，全国外三元生猪均价实现连续三个交易日上涨，累计涨幅0.29元/公斤，8月9日均价报10.61元/公斤，较昨日上涨0.13元/公斤。

从区域表现来看，主销区中，广东均价11.79元/公斤，仍为全国最高水平，福建、浙江分别报11.49元/公斤、11.12元/公斤，维持高位运行；主产区中，东北三省均价回升至10.15-10.28元/公斤，较8月5日低点累计上涨0.32-0.41元/公斤，华北、华中区域涨幅普遍在0.15-0.26元/公斤，新疆、西藏等低价区同步跟涨，全国31个监测省市中27个实现价格上涨，市场情绪整体回暖。
但上下游价格传导并未同步。据农业农村部全国农产品批发市场监测数据，同期全国白条猪肉均价维持在15.78-15.82元/公斤区间，涨幅不足0.1%，显著滞后于活猪价格反弹幅度。这意味着本轮上涨主要由养殖端供给收缩驱动，终端消费需求尚未形成实质支撑。

情绪与节奏共振，基本面压制仍在

今日猪价反弹幅度扩大，南北主流生猪报价上涨0.2~0.3元/公斤，市场情绪转强，支撑猪价上涨的逻辑分析如下：
一方面，供应端来看，月初对集团猪企的调研显示，规模以上猪企本月出栏计划增加3.74%，不过当前生猪存栏结构分化，市场中大猪存栏偏少，国内标肥价差较大，肥猪价格表现坚挺。同时养殖端出栏均重回落，本周样本猪企出栏均重下降0.23公斤，生猪出栏压力减轻，主流规模以上猪企出栏灵活性提升，市场抵触降价出栏的意愿转强。
加之近日国内生猪09合约报价走高，市场对九月猪价前景信心转强，养殖端挺价意愿提升，市场压栏惜售情绪升温，部分头部猪企已经出现明显的拉涨尝试。
另一方面，需求端来看，目前消费需求整体不温不火，鲜品猪肉购销平淡，同时冷冻猪肉库存较高，消费端利好极为有限。不过随着立秋节气到来，北方地区气温回落，居民贴秋膘的消费需求有所提升，且北方气温下降后，猪场疫病风险减轻，进一步提振了养殖端的看涨信心，市场挺价支撑转强。部分二次育肥主体对猪价前景的信心回升，标猪补栏意愿增加，也加大了屠宰场的采购难度。
短期震荡磨底，周期反转尚需时日
结合产能周期及季节性规律，机构对后续猪价走势的判断趋于一致，整体呈现“短期震荡、中期修复、长期磨底”的特征。短期来看，8月中下旬猪价将维持区间震荡格局，上行空间有限。随着规模场中下旬加快出栏进度，前期积压产能释放，猪价或在10.0-11.0元/公斤区间内波动。
中期来看，9月有望迎来阶段性供需错配窗口。2025年10月至2026年2月能繁母猪存栏连续5个月环比下降，对应2026年8-9月生猪理论出栏量边际收缩，叠加双节备货带动需求季节性回升，屠宰量预计环比提升6%-8%，猪价有望震荡上行至11.0-12.0元/公斤区间，但受冻品库存压制，涨幅将明显弱于2025年同期水平。
长期来看，行业产能去化尚未完成，周期反转仍需等待。当前能繁母猪存栏量仍接近3780万头的正常保有量，且母猪生产效能提升至25头左右，产能供给韧性较强，叠加高库存冻品的持续压制，行业真正意义上的周期上行拐点或需等到2027年一季度产能出清完成后方可确认。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001051s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001302s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000503s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000432s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000924s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000409s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000958s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 567006 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000710s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1786381694 WHERE `id` = 567006 [ RunTime:0.018610s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000611s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 567006 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000766s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 567006 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001232s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 567006 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001324s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 567006 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001261s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 567006 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004243s ]
0.193515s