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复盘1980:二次通胀和当前黄金、铜价格对比

  • 2026-03-09 01:44:21
复盘1980:二次通胀和当前黄金、铜价格对比

以史为鉴，可以知兴替

中信建投已故分析师周金涛曾说过，人生发财靠康波

当前属于康波的萧条周期，上一次康波萧条周期为1970年到1980年

不多说废话，直接上图

当前铜价走势和上世纪70年代铜价对比

当前黄金走势和上世纪70年代黄金价格对比

阳光底下没有新鲜事，一切资产价格的变化都可以用周期来解释

从历史来看，贵金属和有色金属还有最后一波涨幅，且行且珍惜

若恐高，可以看看低位的能源，化工，煤炭，钢铁，农产品，最近委内瑞拉的事件反映了地缘政治冲突进一步加剧，往往在康波萧条期大宗商品先后都会有表现

商品上涨的先后顺序如下

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001004s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
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  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001652s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000667s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001488s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 459526 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001051s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1773265665 WHERE `id` = 459526 [ RunTime:0.005310s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 66 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000769s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 459526 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002172s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 459526 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001220s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 459526 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002558s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 459526 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.004174s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 459526 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004237s ]
0.232882s