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CPU涨价行业观点更新

  • 2026-02-20 20:55:44
CPU涨价行业观点更新
1、CPU涨价情况及供给端动因
CPU涨价态势梳理：a. 服务器级CPU方面，英特尔Xeon Scalable、AMD EPYC主流型号2026年一季度已涨价，第三方报告预计2026年全年将有10-20%的涨幅；b. 桌面级CPU中，高端消费级、AI PC级产品2025年四季度涨幅超10%，老平台产品因渠道囤货、返点收缩，价格存波动上涨情况；c. 产品结构变化拉高平均价格，2026年推出的英特尔18A产品较前代高端产品涨18-20%，海光CC86等国产新品放量也带来10-20%的价格增长，海外云厂激进替换老产品，新产品占比提升进一步推高CPU平均价格。
产能受限核心原因：a. 代工厂产能向高价值产品倾斜，台积电N2、N3先进制程2027年产能已被苹果、英伟达、博通等巨头瓜分，因高端GPU、ASIC单晶圆产出价值显著高于传统CPU，芯片代工厂产能分配明显倾斜，挤压CPU产能；b. 先进封装技术瓶颈加剧供应链紧张，ITC2025年四季度产能利用率超100%，导致CPU出货周期从正常的8-10周延长至24周以上；c. 英特尔自身产能压力大，18A工艺量产需保障酷睿、志强系列供应及微软、亚马逊等外部代工客户承诺，其核心节点产能利用率达120-130%，已超负荷，非核心组件转至台联电等二线代工厂。
2、AI Agent对CPU需求的影响
CPU沙箱需求逻辑：CPU沙箱可为程序创造安全独立的运行环境，避免程序间干扰破坏，AI Agent时代对沙箱的需求催生其规模增长。AI Agent需运行大量不可信AI代码，对沙箱提出更快、更多、更安全、更智能的核心需求：a.更快：过往虚拟机启动需数分钟、容器需十几秒，当前微虚拟机沙箱启动约150毫秒，未来目标突破100毫秒，还可通过沙箱预热池提前准备空闲环境，彻底解决冷启动慢的问题；b.更多：AI Agent需同时运行数百甚至上千个小任务，沙箱需具备秒级扩缩能力，128核CPU可开数百个沙箱，资源利用率从个位数提升至70%以上，显著降低成本；c.更安全：需隔离不可信代码，动态调整权限，具备远程证明能力以保障代码和数据干净未被篡改；d.更智能：沙箱需如同完整小电脑，预装工具、保存状态、支持任务中断与接续，还可通过克隆快速复制环境实现并行处理，效率提升几十倍。沙箱过往主要应用于云计算服务器虚拟化，未来将渗透至To B端AI编程、数据分析、自动化办公、智能客服等Agent相关场景，预计到2028年Agent沙箱市场规模或增长上百倍。
CPU与GPU协同关系：当前对Agent带动CPU需求的量化测算存在难度，需结合AI应用渗透程度与真实数据建模，目前Agent能力有限，多数任务仅为办公自动化，仅专业重度AI场景短期内能增加CPU使用强度，To C端场景拓展仍待观察。AI加速场景中CPU与GPU并非替代关系，而是互补协同：Hopper架构上训练过程中CPU开销占10%，Blackwell架构中占35%，CPU承担算子桥接等关键任务。英伟达的技术策略是将原属CPU的负载转移至GPU以适配AI加速计算，而非提升CPU性能；国内Deepseek的InGRAM技术将固定知识存入CPU DRAM查表，仅增加3%延迟，但核心逻辑是优先采用GPU或ASIC加速，仅出于成本与能效考量，将不常用内容分级放入CPU DRAM以获取性价比，并非无限制增加CPU使用强度。
3、CPU相关风险及行业总结
CPU相关风险提示：市场关注英特尔18A先进制程良率爬坡、资本开支相关问题，此前投资人已担忧AI capex支出增长压力。在AI agent的ROI及AI应用落地的商业化进程尚未解决的背景下，存储器成本上涨已给高capex带来不小负担，若此时新增大量CPU增量，其ROI可行性存疑，需重视相关产能与ROI的平衡问题。
半导体行业中长期展望：中长期来看，AI驱动半导体行业增长的逻辑明确成立，这一趋势需时间兑现，市场提前交易具备合理性。基于供给与需求维度的分析可为市场投资提供参考，短期而言，AI芯片的投资逻辑具备确定性，存储池化带来的DRAM、NAND及存储接口芯片等需求无虞，且这些领域的业绩落地节奏快于CPU。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000503s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000631s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.001553s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.002711s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000507s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000208s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000491s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 466313 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002221s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771717818 WHERE `id` = 466313 [ RunTime:0.003547s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000510s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466313 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000371s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 466313 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000604s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466313 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001763s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466313 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001007s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466313 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.009626s ]
0.094639s