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东大的独立行情——20260302债市简评

  • 2026-03-02 18:12:54
东大的独立行情——20260302债市简评
这个周末，真真是非常不太平。
前一秒才说伊朗同意不拥有“可制造核弹的核材料”，下一秒以色列就称：已对伊朗发起先发制人的打击。
接着就是美国加入战斗，空域关闭，人员撤离，警报频响，爆炸此起彼伏。
市场对美以的联合军事打击关注度也持续上升，好在彼时是周末，到3月1日，伊朗最高领导人哈梅内伊遇害的消息传开，市场关注度反而有所下降，似乎在预料战争接近尾声。
海外资本市场也走出了比较典型的避险行情，黄金、债券价格上涨，权益资产下跌。
对于今天国内市场的走势，大家原本就预期地缘冲突的影响有限，毕竟A股对地缘政治的敏感度不高，但确实也没想到大盘会走得这么强势，在个股大多数都下跌的背景下，只能说，两会前，还是不容大跌。
盘面来看，早盘大盘虽然是低开的，但低开幅度很小，且迅速就拉起来的，另一方面，债市的情况就偏弱很多。
收益率早盘就是高开，10Y高开幅度在0.5BP左右，随后便开始窄幅震荡。
短端受益于资金面的宽松，走势明显好于长端与超长端，今天央行公开市场净投放190亿元，资金价格进一步下降，其中，DR001收在1.31%，下行1BP，DR007收在1.46%，下行4BP。
午后，美伊局势并未缓和叠加彭博有消息指出“中国可能会在全国人大会议期间通过降低政策利率或下调存款准备金率来增加货币宽松”，长端收益率有所下行，超长端则是在国债期货的拉动下先于10Y翻红。
最终，利率只有10Y品种收跌，其他利率各期限均已下行收盘。
这周主要还是关注两会的消息，在央行的流动性呵护下，利率虽不至于失速上行，但目前利率绝对水平低，票息收益这么薄的背景下，小幅的调整对固收产品来说也很难受，高杠杆，长久期的可以先减减仓，等待两会各项消息落地再做布局。
实在不想降仓了，也可以做一些资产调整，切换到流动性更高的品种上。
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  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000768s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000853s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.011577s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.002030s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000797s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000318s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000612s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 488005 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000399s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1772525538 WHERE `id` = 488005 [ RunTime:0.003725s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000254s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 488005 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000444s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 488005 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000532s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 488005 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002244s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 488005 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.008358s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 488005 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.010475s ]
0.201832s