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3.26夜盘玻璃行情分析

  • 2026-03-28 07:51:33
3.26夜盘玻璃行情分析
玻璃我今天已经入场做多，均价是1038。
如果有朋友按照金字塔建仓法在1037到1042之间建仓，均价肯定跟我也是差不多的。
相对于焦煤，玻璃的行情就跟织布机一样，不适合做日内，交易周期应该更长点，所以我觉得没必要每天发行情分析。
但是还是有朋友希望我有空就多聊两句，那就说说我的看法，欢迎大家一起探讨交流。
之前说过我看多玻璃的一个成本逻辑，今天我就再补充一下我看多玻璃的另外一个逻辑，就是盈亏比。
1、按照成本逻辑，目前价位做多玻璃，盈亏比超过2:1，是比较划算的。
（即使目前看玻璃经常跌破成本价，但是逻辑还在。先前帖子聊过，不再赘述了。）
2、按照玻璃最近三个月的交割数据分析：
假设玻璃2605合约的最终交割价是950元，那么正常情况下4月份的高点会在1032到1056之间。
这已经是按最近一年内最低的交割价算了。
如果是做多，
即使最终交割价是950，做多基本都能保本离场，胜率低点也没关系。
那么做空呢？
估计大多数只敢看到980附近，也就50多个点的利润空间。
但是一旦原油暴涨，带动纯碱，再传导到玻璃，上方两百个点的空间也不是说不敢想象。
盈亏比这么小，胜率至少要求在80%以上，才能保证期待值为正。
个人觉得没必要冒这么大风险博取这么小的收益。
就像付海棠说过，做空会爆仓，做多永远不会。（不加杠杆）
假设你做多，价格再怎么跌，也不可能跌个100%，跌到0。
（先忽略原油宝这种极端事件，哈哈）
做空却不一样，价格上涨，涨个100%，价格翻倍的例子很常见。
所以说虽然是空头趋势，做空胜率高，但是做空的盈亏比不足以保证让期待值为正，所以不建议做空。
（之前有发过盈亏比的文章，新手朋友感兴趣可以看下，有助于理解）
做玻璃我是以技术分析为辅的，更多的是基本面出发去交易，所以更需要耐心，希望大家也一样。
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今日金价行情(2026年3月26日9时17分)黄金AU9999微跌0.36%,报1011.79元/克

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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000776s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000775s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000281s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000288s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000519s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000199s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000507s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 502050 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006342s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1774849031 WHERE `id` = 502050 [ RunTime:0.004012s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000277s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 502050 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000397s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 502050 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000427s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 502050 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000682s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 502050 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000807s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 502050 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.003955s ]
0.166407s