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神奇的点位,疲劳的行情!

  • 2026-04-16 12:29:47
神奇的点位,疲劳的行情!
从4月6日川普最后通牒那天开始，停战的消息刺激就没停过，但市场迟早是会疲劳的，老金昨晚就认为停战对市场的刺激会逐渐减弱，在外围市场重新回到前高后，短线大概率会回落。毕竟，打了一仗，石油危机对经济的影响都还没怎么显现，外围就已经涨回到了打仗之前的高度，这显然不符合经济学。
同时，老金也指出昨晚可能是外围吃中东停战消息最后一波红利，A股也会跟随打点秋风。果不其然，K线大师川普昨晚又放出大消息，一方面说战争已经结束，另一方面说两天内就有再没谈判的消息。这也刺激昨晚美股再度大涨，但显然带动性已经不强，今天亚洲市场普遍出现冲高回落。
昨晚老金认为大盘会先震荡回落，但受利好的影响。今天早上，老金在朋友圈将预判修改为：“大盘冲高回落再小V，将点位上移了10个点，即高点4050点左右，低点4020左右”。
而这与今天的走势如出一辙，早盘大盘冲高4050点后震荡回落，下午大盘在下探预期低点4020点后小V7个点。所以今天应该是最神奇的一天，点位和走势分毫不差，盘中老金是坚定看冲到这两个点位。
今天中午，老金也依然坚持了这一观点，唯一不同是将下午的高点调整到了4045点左右，这又和下午的点位基本一致。如果早上4050点买认沽，到下午4020基本上能翻倍。

昨天老金预判大盘冲高回落再走高，而今天是冲高回落再小V，虽然只有两个字的差别但走势完全不同，但都符合当天的实际走势。当然今天这个点位有80%都是运气，因为无论是谁都很难做到一点不差。
在板块上老金强调注意高低切换，并特别指出带领创业板创新高的CPO等高位股出现了松动。可以看到今天全靠低位的权重在挺指数，几个宽指ETF只有之前涨的最少50ETf是红的，最强的创业板今天调整最多。当然，目前也只是创了十年新高之后的正常调整，大概率不会走A字形。
那明天大盘会怎么走？
昨晚已经说过停战利好已经审美疲劳，外围短线面临调整，如果消息恶化，甚至可能出现双头。如果今晚外围出现利好兑现的走势，那明天大盘大概率低开反抽再小幅回落的走势，预计上证指数高点4035点左右，低点4010点左右。当然，具体还要看今晚外围怎么表演，川普最喜欢在早晨发利好消息，所以一切都还有变数。
虽然老金主认为中长线来A股的阶段高点在川普访华，但这段时间A股基本上都是跟风外围，尚未体现出独立性。一旦外围开始调整，A股短线是不是也会跟风也值得考虑，这可能是现阶段最大的一个矛盾点，要解决这个问题只能向低位去切换，尽量避开短线涨高的板块和个股。
其实就经济的韧性而言，A股才应该是最强那个，可惜这个市场聪明人太多，有降温、有量化、有机构、有游资，而外围纯粹就是人傻钱多，拼命往上怼，打了一仗，几乎跟没打一样。所以短线虽不奢望外围带动，但外围至少要稳住才行。
祝朋友们好运！
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000693s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000928s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000822s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000267s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000500s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000206s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000577s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 516291 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000406s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1776370469 WHERE `id` = 516291 [ RunTime:0.005248s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000261s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516291 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000453s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 516291 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000474s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516291 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000911s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516291 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.003520s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516291 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.003566s ]
0.088453s