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格林大华期货王骏:黄金中长期偏强行情未结束

  • 2026-04-26 19:56:42
格林大华期货王骏:黄金中长期偏强行情未结束

“2025年至2026年一季度，全球黄金供需呈现供给刚性偏紧、需求持续走强、结构显著分化、供需缺口持续扩大的格局，黄金市场底层逻辑已从周期波动转向结构性紧缺，这成为金价高位运行的核心基本面支撑。”4月23日，格林大华期货有限公司党委委员、副总经理兼首席专家王骏在第五届中国国际矿业投资与发展高峰会议上说。

王骏表示，2025年全球黄金总供给同比小幅增长约1%，其中矿产金产量增至3672吨，再生金供应同比增长3%，但整体仍受制于开采周期、环保约束与成本抬升，供给扩张能力有限。进入2026年一季度，矿产金延续低个位数增长，再生金虽随高价有所回升，但难以改变供给刚性格局，全球黄金供应整体呈现总量稳定、增量稀缺的特征。
需求端表现更为亮眼。王骏介绍，2025年，全球黄金总需求创下历史新高，达到5002吨，核心驱动力来自投资与央行购金。其中，全球黄金投资需求飙升至2175吨，黄金ETF全年净流入801吨，为历史次高；全球金条金币需求达1374吨，创12年新高。全球央行净购金863吨，虽较前几年千吨级水平略有回落，但仍处于历史高位，这成为稳定需求的“压舱石”。
2026年一季度，全球黄金需求结构进一步分化。一季度全球央行净购金约215吨，连续19个月净买入，中国、印度、波兰、捷克等央行持续增持，储备多元化与去美元化动机明确。投资需求先扬后抑，一季度全球黄金ETF净流入回落至62吨，但亚洲地区ETF持续流入，有效对冲了欧美市场的波动。金条金币投资保持强劲，金饰消费逐步回暖，工业用金需求整体平稳。
王骏强调，当前黄金市场供需格局持续偏紧，2026年一季度供需缺口进一步扩大，为近十年同期最紧格局；需求主导力量切换，从投资爆发转向央行购金托底、投资需求波动修复、消费逐步回暖组合；区域分化加剧，亚洲成为全球需求稳定器；供给约束凸显，矿产金增产乏力、开采成本上行、再生金释放有限。
王骏认为，黄金兼具抗通胀、避险、货币三重属性，在不同历史时期均主导过黄金牛市行情，并不满足商品价格决定理论的四大假设基础，价格运行逻辑具备独特性。
王骏表示，从中长期来看，贵金属货币化加强、美联储宽松预期、地缘政治、流动性泛滥、全球央行购金等宏观利好仍存在，国际金价中长期偏强行情未结束，继续刷新历史新高可能性依然存在，2026年或延续震荡偏强行情，金价在4100美元~5600美元区间为主。
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今日金价行情(2026年4月26日17时04分)黄金AU9999 报1040元/克

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000622s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000816s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000299s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000300s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000562s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000228s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000630s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 523377 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000406s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1777219886 WHERE `id` = 523377 [ RunTime:0.008528s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000288s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 523377 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000514s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 523377 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002883s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 523377 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.005753s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 523377 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000961s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 523377 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000979s ]
0.092990s