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2026.05.17本周总结及下半月行情展望

  • 2026-05-17 15:35:47
2026.05.17本周总结及下半月行情展望
上一篇节点的判定是正确的，美中不足的是断点之后市场又给了个透支形式的反包阳，但同样的，透支性的上行伴随的必然是狂暴的下行，就如周四周五所表现出的一样，总的来说，反而还缩短了调整的时间，这是好事。
具体细节上，13号走势冲起来之后对上一篇的蓝色走势进行了一下如下的修正，发于和朋友的聊天中。
目前第一部分的蓝色走势已经兑现，50最低2945，下周一可能仍有向下一个小俯冲，但已然是接近结束的状态了。接下来就是进行一下细化。依然是分析最典型的50：量能高点对N底应当为18个交易日左右，已经走出7个交易日，余10个交易日左右；绝对高点对N底应当为14个交易日左右，已经走出4个交易日，余10个交易日左右。两者重叠验证，说明N底大概率在五月最后一个交易日或六月第一个交易日范围内。那么接下来N2和N3应当是各占五个交易日，综合判断可得以下图示。
需要明确的是时间如此但空间未必如图所示，还是要以市场或者说主力的空间演变为准。N1下周一最多还有个向下一冲，基本可以视作已经完成，那么倘若后面N2强且N3弱，那么这里大概率会变成另外一个大级别的上涨中继，反过来讲，倘若后面N2反弹不够强N3又下的过猛，那么基本就指向于另外一个更大级别的下跌。
我个人倾向于后者，也就是大空头的趋势。从技术角度来说这种走势相对更成熟一些，另外，从压制市场热度去融资杠杆的角度和从GJD止盈资金需要重新入场的角度综合来看，这里也没有太大必要成为新的支撑节点。当然，现在一切只是推测，具体还是以实际走势为准。
······
操作上，12号的空单在14号两点前后拆分成了小部分的六月虚一认沽与大部分的末日轮3000认沽，15号十点前后止盈了末日轮认沽，末日部分收益大概300%左右，两点前后止盈了六月认沽，小有收获。所以目前是空仓状态。
下周一看情况决定要不要小小追随一下空单，大概率是不会追空了，大部分空头利润已经到手，鱼尾没有需求。下周整体以多为主，但不会隔夜，全力进行日内做多，吃一轮反弹再说，运气好的话下周依然可以翻个倍。
······
就这样。
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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000588s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000786s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000391s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000348s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000600s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000251s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000615s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 537745 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000375s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1779011808 WHERE `id` = 537745 [ RunTime:0.001178s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000241s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537745 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000418s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 537745 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000393s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537745 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001330s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537745 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000649s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 537745 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000749s ]
0.117533s