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猪粮比跌破5:1,短期行情窄幅震荡待破局

  • 2026-06-25 00:54:07
猪粮比跌破5:1,短期行情窄幅震荡待破局
全国外三元生猪出栏均价在9.43至9.49元/公斤区间，整体延续节后的“磨底”态势。目前猪价核心矛盾依然在于供强需弱，3月末能繁母猪存栏3904万头，仍高于3750万头的合理保有量，加上生产效率提升，10月前供应难以减少；而夏季高温叠加端午后消费惯性回落，屠企开工率下滑、白条走货承压。
不过，猪粮比已降至3.99:1，跌破5:1的盈亏线，触发一级过度下跌预警，自繁自养每头亏损200至300元，养殖户惜售情绪升温，加之地方临时收储启动，形成了明显的政策底部支撑。展望后市，现货短期内将维持“下有收储与惜售托底、上有供应与淡季压制”的格局，预计保持窄幅磨底。
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6月24日鸡苗行情分析:蓄势充分,百废待兴

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000475s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
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  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000593s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 557561 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001021s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1782328781 WHERE `id` = 557561 [ RunTime:0.000531s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000226s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 557561 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000494s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 557561 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000533s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 557561 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.007896s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 557561 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001665s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 557561 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002522s ]
0.117320s