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玉米:年前行情转淡,年后购销将展开新一轮博弈

  • 2026-02-01 23:09:30
玉米:年前行情转淡,年后购销将展开新一轮博弈
本周全国玉米价格小幅上涨，周均价2332元/吨，全国售粮进度较上周增加4%，饲料企业和深加工的库存小幅增长。距春节假期还有两周的时间，预计市场购销将转向清淡，节前的市场不会有太大变化。
25/26季玉米市场并没有出现卖压，供应端，丰产、售粮进度偏快，但需求端，下游库存却一直偏低，粮源究竟去了哪里，价格是否后期仍面临压力，这些问题恐怕要待年后检验。
1、港口和下游企业库存小幅增加，整体依旧维持历史同期偏低水平
本周玉米北港库存163万吨，较上周的150万吨小幅增加，但仍显著低于去年同期的473万吨。
本周深加工企业库存440.5万吨，较上周的384万吨有明显增长，但仍显著低于去年同期的573万吨。
本周饲料企业库存31.93天，较上周的31.32天小幅增加，也是低于去年同期的32.65天。
从库存情况来看，节前企业还是有备货动作的，趋势上库存处于增加状态，但较历史同期仍然不高。
港口和企业的低库存状态，是25/26年新季玉米的价格走强的支撑。
2、玉米全国售粮进度达到58%，传统卖压何以失效，待时间解答
据钢联数据，东北60%，较上周+4%；华北54%，较上周+3%；全国58%，较上周+5%。
东北的售粮进度是偏快的，国粮中心的东北进度更高65%。
可以说，传统的集中售粮卖压一直没有体现，下游的库存也一直没起来。
在玉米丰产的背景下，那么田间地头的玉米究竟流向了哪里？
有认为基层惜售，快手等自媒体上可见农民的看涨情绪高涨，但问题是多方售粮进度数据都是偏快的，而且基层的话语权会有这么强吗？
有认为中小贸易商囤粮，粮食虽然从基层买了，但是并没有进入市场流通，仍然停留在当地中小贸易商手中，但问题是暂没有被证实的依据，如果在贸易商，那么这部分粮源后期也终将流入市场，压制节后的玉米价格重心；
有认为华北玉米质量下降严重，不能进入饲用的比例很高，只能借助东北玉米补充，但问题是即便质量有问题，应该不会完全用不了，深加工可以用。那么这部分粮源会不会对年后的市场形成冲击？
更有认为整体的产量数据出了问题……
综上，节前的玉米市场，农民卖粮不是很急迫，已经完成了六成；下游企业的库存也基本达到安全库存水平，临近过年还有两周，节日氛围渐浓，玉米市场的购销预计转淡。
关于节后的市场，利空方面，地趴粮要上市；利多方面，企业仍有建库需求。至于卖压是否会彻底消失，是否在基层或中小贸易环节有待投放的粮源，这些问题有待时间解答。总之年前的购销博弈想象空间不大，年后继续关注供需的匹配和双方拉锯情况。
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000370s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000693s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000323s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000289s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000618s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000250s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000714s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 471207 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001722s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770750351 WHERE `id` = 471207 [ RunTime:0.008155s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000312s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471207 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000569s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 471207 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002979s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471207 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.008951s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471207 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.005131s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471207 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004807s ]
0.103260s