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行情开始出现疲态,把握节奏的重点是去弱留强

  • 2026-03-04 18:16:34
行情开始出现疲态,把握节奏的重点是去弱留强
写作是为了帮助思考捋顺思维。
从地缘冲突的发展来看，短时间还不会结束，是否升级还需要观望，但是海峡的封闭对原油的影响是最确定的，一旦冲突升级影响是巨大的。行情走到这已经不是技术能解释的了，完全是资金和情绪在主导，原油作为领头的品种对于市场走向是有决定性作用的，随着原油第一次的大幅震荡调整很多品种也出现回调，但是只要冲突没有结束迹象，这种调整也只是情绪的一种宣泄而已，如果对于冲突持续看好，那这种时机可能是再次上车的好机会，但是，千万注意，这时应该考虑的是去弱留强而不是盲目上车了。
以前的文章提到过，一个波动短期见顶需要一些条件，第一就是要有大幅的下跌出现，甲醇已经出现了快速下跌，但是这里应该不是顶，还需要观察后续能否再创新高以及上涨的力度与幅度，这些不需要预测只需要根据走势来判断即可。对于我来说甲醇这波行情已经大大超过我的预期了，高点下跌初期已经止盈了，至于后面会不会继续参与就看反弹的力度了，但是我需要做的是筛选强势的品种参与，因为可能后面的行情就是鱼尾行情了。
这里最好不要盲目的追涨，因为局势的变化复杂，如果有结束的迹象那么上涨的品种可能会引来短线的杀跌，所以最好的办法是选择相关性高的强势品种，等待调整完毕的时候再考虑介入。或者选择前期涨幅大大表现稳健的品种参与，比如沪铝。
它是有逻辑支撑，也是受益的品种，在1小时走势上也是突破了大的震荡区间完成回踩开启上涨，符合技术走势的标准形态。
还比如棉花，前期突破震荡区间以后正处于回踩阶段，耐心等回调末端可以尝试参与。
这些经历行情波动还能保持良好的技术走势形态，一方面是主力对价格的把控一方面是市场对其走势保持稳定的心态，这些都可能是后期开始爆发的必备条件。
行情出现调整往往是调仓的机会，去弱留强是最好的策略，同时因为开始出现大幅回调，这往往是见顶的第一个条件，因为后续对于行情高度要减少预期，有些品种要注意及时止盈，最好不要在高位站岗。
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  137. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/driver/File.php ( 2.41 KB )
  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000514s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000718s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000287s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000272s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000445s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000231s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000525s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 489217 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000362s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1772734278 WHERE `id` = 489217 [ RunTime:0.009634s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000244s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 489217 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000482s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 489217 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000402s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 489217 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000632s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 489217 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000730s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 489217 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000717s ]
0.118051s