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君子不立危墙之下,警惕近期行情仍有下跌

  • 2026-05-26 02:35:54
君子不立危墙之下,警惕近期行情仍有下跌
一晃近3年没有写东西了。今天突然想写点东西，
今天，起码现在，沪深指数看着还不错，上证指数上个交易日上涨了0.87%，今天上午又上涨了0.57%，深证成指上个交易日上涨了2.30%，今天上午又上涨了0.87%。看样子是欣欣向荣的感觉。
但是从当下的涨跌家数比来看，大概是上涨40%，下跌60%的样子。这样属于比较典型的涨指数不涨个股的节奏。
所以今天沪深指数的上涨，就是权重股上涨的表现。我原以为又是银行、石油强拉的大盘，结果发现还真不是。于是我对市值超过1000亿的股票进行了涨幅排序，发现涨幅前列的股票竟然是电子半导体和元件板块的股票。这倒是符合主力资金重点流入的情况。本来近一个月来也是半导体元器件光学光电子等板块是龙头板块，合情合理。
所以当下操作上可以有两个相反的选择，其一就是追龙头，龙头板块很清晰，不用我在这里表述，大家也知道这一个月半导体很强势。其二就是规避风险，历史行情统计，但凡是涨指数不涨个股的行情，大概率都不会很好。
我常说君子不立危墙之下。所以我更多倾向于规避风险的策略。当然还有第三种折衷的选择，就是手中持有半导体元器件等相关板块的股票，可以持有再观望有没有更高的行情，手中持有非相关板块的股票，以规避风险为主。
最后需要说明一下，一切预判均有准确概率，只是概率大小问题。不排除我预判行情下跌而实际行情上涨这种反向走势。所以如有根据我预判进行了风险规避的朋友，若手中股票涨了，不要怪我，只要后来大盘跌了，就属于我猜对了大盘。
另外，强调我对风险的判断依据，就是涨指数不涨个股。也就是说，如果下午突然涨跌家数比出现了上涨股票多于下跌股票的情况，则这个风险判断依据就不存在了。
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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000413s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000647s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000324s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000272s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000508s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000214s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000561s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 541565 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000372s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1779738233 WHERE `id` = 541565 [ RunTime:0.025400s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000357s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541565 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000584s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 541565 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004766s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541565 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.005977s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541565 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002868s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 541565 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.008792s ]
0.123167s