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简单聊聊7月的行情、锂矿以及小金属

  • 2026-06-17 06:36:37
简单聊聊7月的行情、锂矿以及小金属
昨天本来想写个文章复盘的。但是仔细想一想，最近的行情，完全没必要天天复盘。反正核心就那么几个，前两天的文章已经专门拎出来了。
顶多新增一个MOP龙头：太辰光。（又是光）
而且这个月的策略也给过了，节奏不对就清仓，在节奏上拿的住就只拿龙头核心，当然，仓位每个人自己把握。
岄哥今天想聊聊锂矿以及小金属的问题，因为身边的朋友也在经常讨论这两个方向。
1、它俩能不能成为主线？
岄哥认为，不能。
首先说说锂矿。
我国作为制造业大国，供应链遍布全球。目前锂矿很多都是进口，那么多少涉及地缘政治，这给锂矿带来了天生的不确定性。其实小金属也有类似的问题。
再回到业绩层面，锂矿或者说碳酸锂未来是有增长逻辑的，而且是有业绩预期的。但是问题就是，这样的增长，不是爆发式的，很平滑，没有爆点！可能自己一年的增长，其他板块三天就能完成。
至于小金属，其实跟锂矿拥有同样的问题。不过有一点好的是，它的逻辑是光的上游，这个逻辑是比较硬的。但是问题在于，制造业越往上游，溢价有限！
所以在岄哥看来，小金属逻辑虽有，但是溢价有限，收益曲线也就比碳酸锂稍微抖一点而已！
那么7月的行情，主线应该是什么样的呢？
岄哥认为，只要满足两个条件即可！
一是有超预期的东西，比如各种指标增长率、比如未来发展空间等；二是得有爆点，什么样的指标最容易成为爆点？那就是爆炸的业绩！
那么合起来就是：超预期的爆点！
下图画的不好，但是看起来应该更直观点！
上面的黑线是锂矿的收益曲线，中间的稍微陡点的是小金属，而最下面那根就是7月的主线走势！
那么，哪些板块容易成为主线呢？
岄哥盲猜两个吧。
要么是光（没错，还是它），要么是存储！
今天存储估计洗出去一波人吧！
个人观点不构成投资建议！
祝大家诸事顺意！
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  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000925s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001538s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.001390s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.009395s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000637s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000261s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000653s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 554115 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000402s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1781798590 WHERE `id` = 554115 [ RunTime:0.005970s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003637s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554115 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000577s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 554115 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000510s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554115 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.005416s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554115 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000827s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554115 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001088s ]
0.126583s