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本周行情展望 2025.11.3

  • 2026-03-14 05:53:35
本周行情展望 2025.11.3
上周初我提示了市场面临的风险，从走势来看21号开始的反弹也结束了。从指数上看有阶段顶部特征，尤其是深成指、创业板为主，但是市场确出现了以前没有出现过的情况，上周五大跌，但是个股涨多跌少，这种情况非常少见。
前期的科技主线全部反弹结束出现快速大跌，从涨幅榜情况看，医药类涨幅靠前，科技类跌幅居前。那市场是不是出现风格切换了？
其实从周五医药类个股涨幅排行就能看出些问题：
上面三个都是涨幅靠前的医药品种，可以看出这些都是在8月份见顶的，估计不少人很难想象在当时市场环境科技股非常热闹的时候，这些医药品种能跌幅这么大。
其实想一下从4月份开始的这波行情，首先是普涨，6,7月是医药，8月份开始是芯片科技，9月份新能源资源，10月初普跌，然后反弹，月末反弹结束科技继续大跌。能看出市场是有自己节奏的。
现在市场规模越来越大，来了牛市也是结构性的，而且也会套人，9月初连续3天大跌，10月初又一波大跌，再加上市场结构化明显，这就导致绝大多数人每个月都在爬坑，而且根本跑不赢指数。个股坑更多，从2021年那波基金抱团走势开始，市场其实在去散户化，散户赚钱越来越难。一波下来还不如低位买进指数宽基拿着不动。所以市场也在教育参与者。
说回市场，以深成指为例，最近虽然走的不好，但是也不会跌的很深，现在长期均线一直在上移，整体会继续倾向于震荡调整。
14,15那波大行情，中间也出现过横向震荡周期，当时创业板从585先翻一倍然后震荡了一年才起第二波主升行情。所以从6月23日到10月9日这波主升行情是第一波，中间要震荡比较长的时间，在高位做出一个底部出来，然后再起，最终形成一个所谓“慢牛”的走势。
现在风险其实并不在指数上，指数的风险不大，而个股风险很大，上面截图的三个医药股，如果主升阶段出转折不走，那整段上涨就被全部抹平，这挺吓人的。所以对于任何股票，都别代入感情，上升趋势走完就撤，绝对留恋。做交易要重“势”，“势”不在了你也要及时收手。
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  137. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/driver/File.php ( 2.41 KB )
  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000395s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000625s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.014928s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.003403s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000515s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000201s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000598s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 458507 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006526s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1773450813 WHERE `id` = 458507 [ RunTime:0.011459s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000263s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458507 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004664s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 458507 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.010583s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458507 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001483s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458507 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.073978s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458507 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.003425s ]
0.254809s