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1月22日碳酸锂期货行情评论:

  • 2026-02-18 03:01:34
1月22日碳酸锂期货行情评论:
     今日碳酸锂期货主力2605合约冲击17万及17.5万关口的力度明显不够，17万关口也未能站稳，尾盘报收168780。我还是坚持之前观点，碳酸锂期货现在属于高位震荡行情，继续追涨买入风险很大。
    之前电池出口退税率下调带来的“抢出口”需求，这个消息给盘面带来的利多刺激，效果逐渐消退，最直观的就是对比碳酸锂2605合约两次从14.5万到17万之上的过程（见下图）
红圈内是第一次上涨，力度极强，出现的第一个涨停板，几乎是一字板涨停，强势无比；绿圈内是第二次上涨，力度就差多了，1月20日的涨停，属于尾盘突袭式涨停，市场热度不够，硬拉上去的！
   另外从这两次上涨的成交量上看，第二次成交量萎缩的也很严重。
    有句老话叫：“一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭”，盘面涨势有衰竭迹象——明天走势很关键，除非有特别重磅的利多出现，刺激盘面价格一下子跳涨突破17.5万，若没有的话，碳酸锂期货价格明天必跌，还要重新回踩一下。下跌目标短线看15万-14.5万。
    基本面上，现在充斥的几乎都是利多消息，比如宁德枧下窝矿复产延期；加拿大给中国电动车配额，并大幅降低税率；储能市场高景气；抢出口需求对冲淡季影响；等等。不否认这些利多消息，如同火箭升天需要消耗燃料一样，这些利多消息在价格上涨中不断被消化，已经涨了这么多，利多能量还剩几何？？当市场上看不到利空时，就是最大的利空。
    综合以上，我判断未来盘面一定是进入宽幅震荡状态，中期见顶风险越来越高；操作上不建议现在的位置继续追涨，底部多单可以考虑逢高逐步平仓离场。
以上。
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【CEA】全国碳市场每日综合价格行情及成交信息20260122

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  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000423s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000837s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.002828s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000288s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000549s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000663s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000638s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 465094 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001723s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771983956 WHERE `id` = 465094 [ RunTime:0.001713s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001225s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465094 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001831s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 465094 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.014077s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465094 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.014566s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465094 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.007239s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465094 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.011805s ]
0.146665s