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  • 2026-02-06 17:43:09
有多少量,就有多少行情
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第一部分：每日衍生品数据分析

大、小盘指数走势分化，波动率升降不一，各自对应不同的情绪，一起来感受下衍生品定价：
（上图为2.5号中证500ETF加权波动率分时图）
（上图为2.5号沪深300ETF加权波动率分时图）
（上图为2.5号沪深300ETF波动率微笑曲线）
（上图为2.5号中证500ETF波动率微笑曲线）

2.5号衍生品数据翻译如下：

1）市场缩量明显持续大强小弱走势，波动呈现出50、300降波+500、双创出现小幅度升波，定价短期不确定性仍在中小盘与科技成长板块，尤其是在缩量的情况下；
2）建议持续跟踪接下来2-3个交易日500、双创认沽波动率变化，尤其是是否升波10%的情况，这决定对冲策略的考量；

第二部分：中证500股指期货2月基差贴水

2.5号基差数据翻译如下：

1）基差升贴水变化较快，从昨天升水转为今日小幅贴水1.1个点，基差贴水维持在20个点之内。

建议持续跟踪接下来2-3个交易日：成交量是否延续缩量+基差是否贴水扩大，此观点与昨日文章一致，短期不会改变：
期权实战小技巧(36）：保证金制度
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000744s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
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  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000220s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000640s ]
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