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稀烂无方向的行情对应着冰火两重的经济

  • 2026-05-29 15:18:00
稀烂无方向的行情对应着冰火两重的经济
27日上午，国家统计局公布了1-4月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润总额24358.4亿元，同比增长18.2%；1-4月份，规模以上工业企业实现营业收入44.89万亿元，同比增长5.2%。
数据初看，增长稍慢的营收获得增长更快的利润，按理说这是经济质量提高的表现，单位营收的附加值提升获得更好的单位利润。但是，继续扒开行业利润增长看，则行业分化趋势的更加严重，利润主要集中在上游的采矿以及制造业中的有色、化工以及电子制造行业，其他传统行业则表现为利润同比缩减，连寄予厚望的汽车制造业也录得两位数利润减少。2026年，新兴产业和传统产业的感受可谓冰火两重天。
5月月末将至，本月大宗市场行情以震荡为主，趋势交易进入一段难熬的时段。当前阶段，工业品面临上游成本抬升同时下游需求不振的尴尬境地，因而交易起来有些难度。反观农产品，大多数品种也是震荡行情，但豆一、鸡蛋、棉花的行情相对不错，也体现了农产品的需求刚性，价格传导在困难的当下较之工业品稍有优势。
5月25日，国家发展改革委、财政部关于《2026-2028年棉花目标价格政策的通知》提到，“2026-2028年新疆棉花目标价格为每吨18600元。如遇棉花市场形势发生重大变化，报请国务院同意后及时调整。“在当前国内棉花种植面积减产的前提下，棉花品种价格的上涨有更多的确定性；
4月20日，农村农业部市场分析预警团队撰写的《中国农业展望报告（2026-2035））》在京发布。"报告预测，2026年，粮食和重要农产品稳产保供能力进一步夯实，大面积单产提升带动粮食、油料产量将分别达到7.16亿吨、4024万吨，分别比上年增长0.2%、2.6%。...预计大豆、猪肉、牛肉、奶类进口分别比上年减少6.1%、8.2% 、3.9%、4.1%，蔬菜、水果、水产品出口分别比上年增长6.4%、5.0%、3.9%。农产品价格总体平稳，多数品种年内先稳后涨趋势。“;报告还提到“未来10年，农产品价格总体趋涨，粮油、畜禽产品、蔬菜、水果、水产品等优质优价现象更加明显。受生产资料、劳动力及土地租金等生产成本持续上涨推动，粮食价格将呈现波动上涨趋势；”。今年，在原油价格和硫磺价格上涨带动下，国内运输、磷肥价格已然上涨，且叠加土地租金自2020年以来快速上涨，粮食的种植成本确实已经推高。
27日上午，平仓国债2606合约3手，成交情况：
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000424s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000636s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.002411s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000376s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000551s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.002012s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000608s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 542930 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001101s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1780125386 WHERE `id` = 542930 [ RunTime:0.002658s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002183s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542930 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.010200s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 542930 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002292s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542930 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.003121s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542930 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.003951s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542930 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002469s ]
0.116540s