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美元/加元行情前瞻:关税担忧卷土重来,加元承压走弱

  • 2026-06-05 06:37:11
美元/加元行情前瞻:关税担忧卷土重来,加元承压走弱
汇通财经APP讯——本轮买盘升温，起初源于中东地缘局势扑朔迷离，美元率先企稳。而在今日盘面中，美国拟加征新关税的消息再度出炉，进一步助推美元走强。倘若各类不确定性因素持续发酵，美元兑加元的多头买盘或将延续。关税阴霾再度来袭？美国政府释放的相关表态，令短线市场不确定性骤然升温：美方计划对全球16个经济体加征关税，基准税率至少10%，加拿大、英国、欧盟均在征税名单之列；针对中、日等国，美方甚至酝酿12.5%的更高幅度关税。相关征税举措暂不会立即落地，但提案重燃市场对贸易战的忧虑，重演2025年大范围贸易摩擦的市场环境。未来数周，美方将召开听证会敲定细则。加拿大方面虽有缓冲：依托《美墨加协定（USMCA）》合规的商品可豁免本次新增关税，但这无法彻底消解全球贸易不确定性，美加双边经贸摩擦隐患仍存。叠加中东冲突局势不明，本就有避险配置需求支撑美元；如今贸易紧张预期再起，进一步夯实美元的避险属性——在地缘冲突与贸易摩擦频发阶段，美元历来是全球资金首选的避险流动性币种。受关税消息刺激，衡量美元一篮子强弱的美元指数（DXY）站稳99.5上方，逼近100关键整数关口，短线均线稳步抬升，直观体现全球资金增持美元的意愿明显回暖。综上，贸易摩擦风险再度抬头是美元走强的核心推手之一，也直接压制加元短线反弹空间。若市场避险与不确定性环境延续，后续美元兑加元多头行情有望延续。美加债市收益率分化，继续利好美元近几个交易日美加两国国债走势相近，10年期国债收益率同步上行：加拿大10年期收益率单日涨幅0.88%，美国10年期美债收益率单日走高1.17%。但收益率绝对值差距悬殊：美国10年期美债收益率仍贴近4.5%，加拿大同期限国债收益率仅在3.5%附近。即便两国债市同步回暖，美债在固定收益市场的收益率优势依旧突出。美债收益率偏高会持续吸引全球跨境资本涌入美元计价债券，催生购汇需求，从基本面托举美元；反观加债收益率偏低，资产吸引力偏弱。过往美加利差就多次助推美元兑加元上行，只要利差格局不变，该因素仍将持续为美加汇率多头提供支撑。技术分析（美元/加元日图 来源：易汇通）长期下行趋势面临破位考验：日线级别长达数月的长期下行趋势线，近期受价格反弹持续冲击。若多头买盘稳步延续，原有空头趋势将失效，行情有望彻底转向多头主导。相对强弱指标RSI：指标持续站稳50多空分界线之上，过去14个周期整体多头动能占优，中线偏多格局未改；不过当前RSI已临近70超买阈值，短线多头透支迹象显现，行情存在小幅回调修正的可能性。指数平滑异同移动平均线MACD：柱状线持续运行在零轴上方，短周期均线组合维持多头排列，中线行情依旧偏向利好美加多头。关键价位参考阻力位1.3922：位于50日、200日均线上方的关键高点。若价格稳步上攻该点位并有效突破，将击穿长期下行趋势线，打开中期新一轮上涨空间。短线阻力/支撑分水岭1.3811：与200日周期均线重合，若行情开启短线回落，该位置将成为空头首个试探目标。关键支撑位1.3750：贴合50日均线。一旦价格有效跌破此处，空头行情将再度回归，原有长期下行趋势将重新主导后续数周走势。
数据来源于全亚洲权威金融衍生品财经媒体：FX678汇通财经以及FX678开发者平台（Open.FX678.com），本文仅为市场行情深度分析，不构成任何投资建议。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001261s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001656s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000718s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000629s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001360s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000590s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001490s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 547294 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001093s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1780691832 WHERE `id` = 547294 [ RunTime:0.004885s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000620s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 547294 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001000s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 547294 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002476s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 547294 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.003784s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 547294 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002064s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 547294 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004777s ]
0.191700s