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“医药界存储”引爆了行情

  • 2026-07-16 04:00:03
“医药界存储”引爆了行情
猴哥短缺，20万一只都有价无猴的场面让医药板块享受了一把久违的热度。
就在昨晚，手握大批临床实验用食蟹猴的昭衍新药发布半年报预告，营收预计6.6-7.3亿，扣非净利润5.6-8.4亿。你没看错，利润大于营收，并实现23-35倍的利润增速。
深究其原因，生物资产公允价值变动贡献了7-7.7亿的净利润。也就是说，昭衍新药凭着“家里有猴”，躺赢了。
在药物安全性评价环节中，灵长类动物是药效、毒理试验的关键模型。尤其是大分子生物药，例如抗体、小核酸、多肽以及细胞与基因治疗等无法在小白鼠体内表达，只有跟人类基因组高度同源的食蟹猴才能真实还原药效和毒性反应。
随着创新药研发的高度景气，实验用猴价格持续上涨，从去年底的10万出头一只，涨到6月底的20万一只。有机构预测，国内实验猴年合规出栏量维持在3万只上下，而行业年度需求量已经突破4万只。今年符合出栏的食蟹猴已经被长协客户提前订满，现货紧缺。预计未来3年，每年食蟹猴的缺口在1.5-2万只。
昭衍新药作为国内布局实验用猴最早、养殖规模最大的企业，前几年通过自养+并购模式持续深耕养猴场，目前持有食蟹猴超过5万只，“花果山真就是金山银山”。
早在2021年，昭衍新药发布了会计政策变更公告，将实验猴相关生物资产的后续计量方式从成本法切换为公允价值法。这意味着昭衍饲养的实验猴子在每个报告期末都要按市场价格重新估值，价格上涨带来的资产增值直接计入当期损益。
熟悉的味道来了，昭衍不正是医药界的存储么？！两大板块底层周期、资产计价、盈利驱动逻辑完全一致。核心资产都是可囤积、周期涨价、供给扩产缓慢。存储建厂、产线建设、良率爬坡至少要2-3年，食蟹猴繁育完整周期要6-7年。而且都是下游刚需不可替代，下游景气周期向上→上游核心资源紧缺→资源价格暴涨→持有大量库存的龙头业绩爆炸，整条传导链条异曲同工。
从下游的创新药行业来看，近期也是硕果累累。6月份海思科实现了两笔超30亿美元的BD出海、和誉与礼来的19亿美元、德琪两笔19亿美元。就在这两天，信达与Spero Therapeutics的11亿美元、翰森与Avere Therapeutics的21.8亿美元、迪哲与阿斯利康的15亿美元（6亿美元首付款，创下了小分子药物出海的最高纪录）、英矽智能与保瑞药业的25亿美元密集落地。
“猴子狂飙”带来了刷屏的热度，但医药的回暖却实实在在的进行中。6月底市场震动以来，资金高切低，政策利好密集、防御属性强的医药板块成为科技板块资金高位减持后的避风港，半年报的利好预期又给观望资金埋伏的信心。
BD出海能否为药企带来长期稳定的现金流、国内支付端的改善能否兑现为企业端盈利的改善？这两个问题将成为长线资金是否有信心深度布局医药的核心要点。
BD出海从单纯的知识产权买卖到如今的New Co模式、Co D共享全球权益模式，我们看到了合作模式的升级。
能否兑现为企业盈利的改善？半年报将会交作业，我们拭目以待！
~~~
P.S.今天就先到这，顺手添加公众号星标关注就能第一时间看到我的更新了！
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000597s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000702s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000389s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000273s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000501s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000190s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000582s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 563259 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003921s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1784152270 WHERE `id` = 563259 [ RunTime:0.022848s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000365s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 563259 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000771s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 563259 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000692s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 563259 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.006904s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 563259 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001485s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 563259 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001090s ]
0.109882s