Our modern world was built on fuel.

我们的现代世界的发展是基于燃料的。

History has been determined by who finds, who controls and who burns the dominant fuel of the age.

历史取决于谁发现、谁控制和谁燃烧这个时代的主导燃料。

So the past makes sense when you look at it wearing fuel-tinted glasses.

因此，当你戴着燃油色的眼镜看待过去时，过去就有意义了。

These are not just a really great fashion accessory for this year's Fyre Festival.

这些不仅仅是今年Fyre音乐节的绝佳时尚配饰。

They are, in fact, essential safety equipment for our leaders, as they seek to shape history.

事实上，它们是我们领导人寻求塑造历史的必要安全设备。

But now, we're in the midst of the next great energy transition.

但现在，我们正处于下一个伟大的能源转型之中。

So who will control the future of clean energy?

那么谁将掌控清洁能源的未来呢？

Who will be the Saudi Arabia of this transition?

谁将成为这场转型中的沙特阿拉伯？

Well, through fuel-tinted glasses, the answer seems obvious.

好吧，透过燃油有色眼镜，答案似乎显而易见。

It's whoever controls the copper, the lithium, the graphite, the cobalt, the rare earths, the critical minerals that we need.

谁控制了铜、锂、石墨、钴、稀土，这些我们需要的关键矿物。

But our fuel-tinted glasses are broken, because this is the first transition not to another dominant fuel, but to a technology,

但我们的燃料有色眼镜被打破了，因为这一次过渡不是向另一种主导燃料，而是向一种技术，

and that changes everything.

这改变了一切。

Now I've spent a lot of time thinking about what this means.

现在我花了很多时间思考这意味着什么。

Our team is building one of the largest distributed renewable energy utilities for Africa.

我们的团队正在建设非洲最大的分布式可再生能源公用事业之一。

CrossBoundary Energy uses on-site solar batteries and wind to bring cheaper, cleaner and more reliable power to businesses,

CrossBoundary Energy使用现场太阳能电池和风能为企业带来更便宜、更清洁、更可靠的电力，

and CrossBoundary Access uses the same technologies to bring first-time power,

CrossBoundary Access使用相同的技术来带来首次电力，

to some of the 600 million people living on this continent without it.

对于生活在这个没有它的大陆上的6亿人中的一些人来说。

And here is what I have learned at the silicon face of this transition.

以下是我在这一转变中学到的东西。

Unlike fuel, technology is less existential.

技术与燃料不同存在的形式不同。

It's more circular.

它更灵活。

It's more fungible, and it's more abundant.

它的可替代性更强，也更丰富。

So I can use one of our projects to explain how this works.

我可以用我们的一个项目来解释这是如何运作的。

This is Tolagnaro in Madagascar.

这是马达加斯加的托拉纳罗。

It's a remote town of 55,000 people, next to a major critical minerals mine.

这是一个拥有55000人口的偏远小镇，旁边是一个主要的关键矿产矿。

Power for the mine and the community, until recently, came from heavy fuel oil generators on the mine site.

直到最近，矿场和社区的电力都来自矿场的重燃油发电机。

Now, CrossBoundary powers the mine with a renewable energy microgrid made up of solar, wind and batteries.

现在，CrossBoundary通过由太阳能、风能和电池组成的可再生能源微电网为矿场供电。

Soon, we hope that we will be able to phase out the generators altogether.

很快，我们希望能够完全淘汰发电机。

Now, hopefully, you're beginning to feel somewhat convinced that demand for new material will be fundamentally different in this transition 

现在，希望你开始确信，在这次转变中，对新材料的需求将发生根本性的不同，

because it is less existential, more circular, more fungible, and those things together mean that it is more flexible.

因为它的存在感较弱，更具循环性，也更具可替代性，而这些特点综合起来意味着它更具灵活性。

It is more elastic.

它更有弹性。

But we do still have a lot of energy transitioning left to do.

但我们确实还有很多能源转型要做。

So we do need new supply.

所以我们确实需要新的能源供应。

And so here is my final piece of good news.

这是我的最后一个好消息。

The materials that we need for this energy transition are abundant.

我们这种能量转变所需的材料非常丰富。

First, we need less stuff.

首先，我们需要更少的东西。

From now until 2050, we need to extract, every year, around 230 million tonnes of end-use materials.

从现在到2050年，我们每年需要开采约2.3亿吨最终用途材料。

So it sounds like a lot.

所以听起来很多。

But every year, currently, we extract over eight billion tonnes of coal.

但目前，我们每年开采超过80亿吨煤炭。

Every year, we extract five billion tonnes of oil and three billion tonnes of natural gas, every single year,

每年，我们开采50亿吨石油和30亿吨天然气，

just to fuel our existing energy system.

只是为了为我们现有的能源系统提供燃料。

So that 230 million looks manageable.

所以2.3亿看起来是可控的。

Now we are going to need more of material like copper, lithium, graphite, cobalt.

现在我们将需要更多的材料，如铜、锂、石墨、钴。

But this is the second point of relative abundance.

但这是相对丰富的第二个点。

We've got plenty of this stuff.

我们有很多这样的东西。

When geologists estimate the likely resource, they show that it easily exceeds our projected demand.

当地质学家估计可能的资源时，他们表明它很容易超过我们的预计需求。

Even rare earths are not rare.

即使是稀土也不罕见。

They were called rare because they were rarely found in their pure form.

它们被称为稀有，因为它们很少以纯粹的形式被发现。

They were always found with another material.

它们总是被发现带有另一种材料。

So sure, they're rare, but they're rare in the same way that Bert is rare without Ernie.

当然，它们确实很罕见，但这种罕见与伯特的罕见的情况是相同的。

But is oil very different?

但石油有很大的不同吗？

Our identified resource of oil is actually pretty abundant relative to demand as well.

我们确定的石油资源实际上相对于需求来说也相当丰富。

And our identified reserves of oil are held, similarly to critical minerals, in a very concentrated set of hands.

我们确定的石油储量与关键矿物类似，都掌握在非常集中的手中。

Here's one final piece of evidence that can tie all of this together.

最后一个证据可以把这一切联系起来。

Can you name me a successful cartel for an energy-transition mineral?

您能给我列出一个成功的能源转换矿物卡特尔吗？

Have you, for instance, heard of these famous copper cartels, the Secretan Copper Syndicate, the Amalgamated Copper Company,

例如，您听说过这些著名的铜卡特尔吗，秘密铜辛迪加、联合铜公司，

the Copper Exporters Association, the Copper Exporters Incorporated and the not particularly creatively named International Copper Cartel.

铜出口商协会、铜出口商公司和名称不特别有创意的国际铜卡特尔。

These are all real cartels, and they all failed, because when supply is abundant and demand is elastic,

这些都是真正的卡特尔，但都没能发展起来，因为当供应充足而需求有弹性时，

because when supply is abundant and demand is elastic, a cartel has the lifespan of your average "Game of Thrones" character.

因为当能源供应充足而需求有弹性时，卡特尔的寿命相当于“权力的游戏”角色的平均寿命。

There will not be an OPEC for renewables.

不会有一个可再生能源欧佩克。

OK, fine.

好吧，很好。

But won't there be a Saudi Arabia of manufacturing in this transition?

但在这个转型中不会出现一个制造业的沙特阿拉伯吗？

Well, no, at least not for the same reasons.

嗯，不，至少不是出于同样的原因。

Because manufacturing is effectively abundant, your ability to manufacture does not constrain my ability to manufacture.

因为制造业实际上是丰富的，所以您的制造能力并不限制我的制造能力。

It's not zero-sum.

这不是零和。

Nobody can stop you from making solar panels.

没有人能阻止你制造太阳能电池板。

Now building, being good at building and making things creates wealth, and wealth can lead to power.

现在建筑、善于建筑、制造东西创造财富，财富可以带来权力。

But in this transition, it matters so much less what you have and so much more what you do.

但在这个转变中，重要的是你所拥有的东西，而重要的是你所做的事情。

The great nations of tomorrow will not be those that focus on controlling materials and constraining the growth of others.

明天的伟大国家将不会是那些专注于控制材料和限制其他国家增长的国家。

The great nations of tomorrow will be those that focus on their comparative advantage.

明天的伟大国家将是那些专注于其比较优势的国家。

Identify and unlock the resources that we'll all need.

识别并释放我们都需要的资源。

Invent, build and manufacture the technology that we'll all need, and then sell it at great prices, terrific prices to the rest of the world.

发明、构建和制造我们都需要的技术，然后以优惠的价格将其出售给世界其他地区。

That's what policymakers should focus on, not annexing another source of not particularly rare earths.

这就是政策制定者应该关注的问题，而不是吞并另一个不特别稀土的来源。

The leaders we need now are explorers ...not exploiters.

我们现在需要的领导者是探险家……不是剥削者。

They are builders, not worriers.

他们是建设者，而不是担忧者。

And they are innovators, not conquerors.

他们是创新者，而不是征服者。

So let's take off those fuel-tinted glasses together.

所以让我们一起摘下那些燃油色的眼镜。

Who will control the future of clean energy?

谁将掌控清洁能源的未来？

Well, the answer is nobody.

好吧，答案是没有人。

And the answer can be everybody.

答案可以是每个人。

Because the future of energy is not controlled.

因为能源的未来是不受控制的。

It's shared.

它是共享的。

It's not extracted, it's built, and it can belong to all of us.

它不是提取出来的，而是建造出来的，它可以属于我们所有人。

Thank you.

谢谢。