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数据统计:过往10年春节前行情7年上涨

  • 2026-02-10 19:11:44
数据统计:过往10年春节前行情7年上涨
春节临近，市场再度面临“持股还是持币”的灵魂拷问。
当短期波动扰动情绪，我们更需要用数据说话，理性决策。通过2016-2025年共十年的真实数据，为您深度解析春节行情的规律与机会。

一、十年实证：春节前上涨概率达70%

统计了过去十年春节前后沪深300指数的表现，具体数据如下：
年份
春节前5日
节后5日
节后20日
背景事件
2016
-5.1%
+3.3%
+5.8%
熔断余波，节后修复
2017
+1.5%
+0.8%
+1.2%
经济复苏，温和上涨
2018
+2.5%
-2.1%
-4.5%
贸易摩擦初现
2019
+1.0%
+3.5%
+8.2%
春季躁动，估值修复
2020
-3.4%
-3.6%
-1.8%
疫情突发，极端黑天鹅
2021
+3.2%
+4.1%
+2.5%
核心资产行情演绎
2022
+2.8%
-0.5%
-4.2%
俄乌冲突，地缘冲击
2023
+2.2%
-0.9%
+1.5%
疫后复苏预期博弈
2024
+1.8%
+2.4%
+3.6%
政策暖风频吹
2025
-4.2%
+2.96%
+3.94%
-
核心发现：
春节前上涨概率70%：过去十年中，春节前5日有6年实现上涨；
节后修复特征明显：即使是在节前下跌的年份（2016、2020、2025），节后往往呈现明显修复行情；
剔除极端年份后，节后20日上涨概率达75+%：除去2020年疫情和2022年俄乌冲突等不可抗力因素，春节后行情表现更加稳健

二、春节效应的四大驱动力：为何"节后胜率更高"？

流动性回补效应

节前避险资金离场，节后大规模回流，市场微观流动性显著改善

政策窗口期效应

两会前政策预期持续升温，市场风险偏好系统性提升

业绩真空期优势

1-2月财报披露稀疏，市场更关注预期而非现实基本面

数据验证效应

春节消费、出行数据往往超预期，强化经济复苏信心
本质而言，春节时段是A股年度周期中"情绪面权重最高、基本面权重最低"的窗口，情绪容易在"跌无可跌"后实现均值回归。
你的春节仓位策略是？欢迎在评论区交流分享。
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

2025年2月10日各地最新猪价行情播报

节前行情能否轻指数重个股?

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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001048s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001173s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.020273s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.007487s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001592s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.019696s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001528s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 479289 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.079472s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770729679 WHERE `id` = 479289 [ RunTime:0.004129s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000716s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 479289 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.019415s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 479289 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.029452s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 479289 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.046937s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 479289 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.142497s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 479289 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.247341s ]
0.796167s