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临时降温,大宗商品依然走分化行情

  • 2026-04-08 23:17:41
临时降温,大宗商品依然走分化行情
4月8日，本该是美伊最后摊牌的日子，最后双方各退一步，开启临时停火谈判。在冲突升级的最后一刻，及时踩刹车，给本就脆弱的世界经济缓了一口气，暂时解除了原油价格暴涨的威胁。不管最后能不能恢复和平，至少可以看到美伊双方都有暂时控制战争烈度的想法，仅此在当下就是难得的成果，金融市场也不会立刻抢跑去交易世界经济衰退预期。
按照依然进行中的俄乌局部战争经验，美以伊的战争也不大可能轻易结束。从美伊双方提出的谈判条件，都有对方不能接受的条款，看不到谈判结束战争的可能路径，打打停停，更可能又是俄乌战争的中东版本。
整个3月，伴随着原油价格高位震荡，大宗商品又演绎了一场分化行情。战争爆发初期，在恐慌情绪下，部分基本面过剩的品种也有一段爆发上涨行情，如烧碱、氧化铝等。随着3月下旬，国内原油价格稳定在高位震荡后，这些品种又价格回落。至于钢材、玻璃、纯碱这类工业品，则是有心无力，涨了几日就开始滑落回来；而有色金属板块，除了市场担心经济衰退时期有所下跌，局势一有降温就立马上涨。此种迹象表明，国内行业景气的分化依然影响着大宗商品价格的冷热，类似2021年那般大宗价格普涨的行情还未到来。
当前，金融市场已经对那位美国总统先生的各种随意发言产生钝感，各类资产定价即将回归到自身基本面情况。本周五，国家统计局将公布3月价格指数，届时可以评估3月开始的地缘冲突对国内通胀的影响程度。
上午，开盘立刻止损了中证1000指数2606合约的多头持仓。既然冲突没有走向极端，那么这份保险可以放下了，用了一笔不小的代价防范极端行情。成交情况：
持仓情况：
净值情况:
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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000396s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000485s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000280s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000281s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000493s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000194s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000607s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 510835 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000635s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1775675332 WHERE `id` = 510835 [ RunTime:0.014238s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000357s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 510835 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000564s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 510835 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001211s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 510835 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001007s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 510835 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.004283s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 510835 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.018955s ]
0.113653s