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豆油行情的蛛丝马迹

  • 2026-06-23 15:11:56
豆油行情的蛛丝马迹
2025年年中，中美“关税战”正激烈，中国进口美国大豆的可能性降至零，虽然25年全球大豆丰产，中国自巴西进口大豆数量再创新高，但受中美贸易争端影响，豆油期货走出震荡上行行情。
2025年年末，中美顺利展开多轮磋商，关税战的影响逐渐退出，豆油期货逐渐回落。2026年年初维持在8000附近震荡。
2026年2月28日，春节假期刚过，市场参与者正陆续恢复交易，美以伊争端愈演愈烈，霍尔木兹海峡封闭，原油走出连续跳涨行情。
虽然真正发生之前，市场已经广泛推演过霍尔木兹海峡被封的剧本，但海峡被封后还是令相关品种走出轮番的连续上涨行情，无数关于原油、甲醇、生物柴油等品种的数据漫天飞，相关品种拉升后维持偏强震荡。美豆油连续上行且维持较好榨利，国内豆油2609合约最高涨至8818元/吨。
6月以来，谈判达成共识的消息陆续传来，6月19日美国与伊朗已经签署相关协议。另外巴西大豆丰产已是板上钉钉，美豆播种顺利天气良好，美豆展开回落，国内豆油震荡下行。
6月8日形成8400震荡区间下沿的向下破位，今日再次反弹至8400压力位附近。从技术形态上看出现了不错的卖出机会。
其他方面，南美大豆丰产待出口，美国播种顺利天气良好，虽然厄尔尼诺已经逐渐形成，但尚未对农产品尚未产生实质性的影响。前期炒作影响到加拿大油菜籽种植，现已证伪。后期要关注警惕厄尔尼诺对东南亚棕榈油收获会不会有影响。
天气炒作每年都会有，行情还是会一轮一波的展开，分析和预判可以又多又全，但交易还是要在蛛丝马迹之下一笔一笔的做！保持节奏！
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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/49e0cd3e0528281c5c5fae705243dc37.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000439s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000623s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000271s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.013370s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000565s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000209s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000525s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 556654 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003054s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1782210747 WHERE `id` = 556654 [ RunTime:0.008959s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000307s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 556654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004018s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 556654 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003564s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 556654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.010549s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 556654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.008708s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 556654 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001268s ]
0.190677s