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周度复盘及下周行情展望

  • 2026-03-01 22:42:37
周度复盘及下周行情展望
       本周现券收益率呈现先上后下的行情，10年国债250022收益率最高到1.8200%，30年国债2500006收益率最高到2.258%，没有明显的利空因素，主要由于前期下行过多带来的正常回调，但是周中上海房地产政策的出台，加强了市场对于未来可能政策的预期，现券收益率随即加快上行。 周五国债期货表现稳于预期，特别是10年国债期货T2606，收盘在20日均线以上，整体较强，说明可能短期调整临近尾声，但是30年国债期货TL2606整体仍然较弱。基于此，周中我们建议适当布局10年及以下，30年相对谨慎，等待更明朗再入场更佳。
      周末国际形势突变，M国对YL发动空袭，避险情绪释放，现券收益率周六中午下行，10年和30年均已经定价2bp左右，基于目前定价相对充分，但是下周一需要继续看事态的进展和股市的表现，如果继续扩大，预期还将继续定价，整体建议周一以出为主，暂时部分落袋为安。
      基于此，我们预期下周现券收益率先下后上再下，突发事件影响如果没有进一步扩大，现券将回到自己定价的主逻辑，市场由于对HY政策的预期，产生一定的避险情绪，现券收益率将有所调整，但是幅度可能有限，待落地后产生一定的预期差，由此带来现券收益率的进一步下行，下行幅度要看具体的政策，如果大幅低于预期，加上货币政策宽松，可能打开进一步下行的空间。下周整体策略建议：周一下行减仓为主，随后趁回调买入，博弈HY预期差。
       下图为10年国债250022和30年特别国债2500006最近5个交易日收益率变动K线图。
另，附上冲突时间线供参考。
愿我们的三月，日日和煦，可盼可期！
作者提示：个人观点，仅供参考！
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

2026.3.1-最新玉米价格市场行情动态(仅供参考)

【行情】3月2日鸡苗价格参考

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000455s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000640s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000367s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000366s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000483s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000194s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000560s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 487324 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000363s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1772433274 WHERE `id` = 487324 [ RunTime:0.003629s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000321s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 487324 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000468s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 487324 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000356s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 487324 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.004728s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 487324 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000701s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 487324 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004241s ]
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