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耐心持有即可,修复行情可期

  • 2026-07-03 08:00:08
耐心持有即可,修复行情可期
随着前期资金到期压力的集中释放，流动性压力边际缓和，债市行情逐步回归自身基本面逻辑，流动性层面的短期冲击已基本消化，对债市的边际压制减弱，配置盘逢调承接力量尚存。
本月3M和6M买断式逆回购到期规模分别为8000亿和9000亿，另有4000亿MLF到期。今日尾盘或将公布3M买断逆回购续作规模，市场此前传闻续作规模有1.3万亿，预期只要不缩量对市场影响估计有限，能增量续作那就更好了。
对比前两期500亿、400亿的国债净买入操作，本次国债买卖操作100亿，力度有点不及预期，但对行情影响有限。尾盘的回调更多的是来自于美国非农数据预期避险和今日超长债发行的扰动。
非农数据落地后美债收益率大幅下行，对国内国债形成间接利好，昨日尾盘避险离场的资金存在回流入场的动力。此前市场一度定价10月美联储加息，当前市场大概率会下调加息押注。
国债期货TL日线仍处在磨底阶段，60日均线是短期内的核心支撑。国内货币政策宽松基调并未改变，加上隔夜美债收益率下行带来外部利多，今日超长债一级发行的短期扰动过后，前期避险离场的短线资金有望回流，推动盘面开启一轮修复行情，当前保留部分底仓耐心持有的必要性还是要有的，关注资金面变化，耐心持有即可，修复行情可期。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000462s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000695s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000289s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000269s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000462s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000192s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000558s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 560870 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000477s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1783042317 WHERE `id` = 560870 [ RunTime:0.029383s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005799s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560870 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.008825s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 560870 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000523s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560870 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000918s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560870 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001058s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560870 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000986s ]
0.138187s