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关于对黄金近期行情的分析与看法

  • 2026-02-09 01:35:53
关于对黄金近期行情的分析与看法
近期黄金市场呈现剧烈波动态势。国际金价暴力反弹、国内金价同步走强，日内呈现 “先探底后拉升” 的逼空态势，核心驱动来自美元走软、地缘避险与技术性买盘集中入场，中长期上涨逻辑仍在。

一、驱动因素分析

支撑因素

  1. 央行持续购金：中国央行连续15个月增持黄金，1月末黄金储备达7419万盎司。全球央行2025年净购金863吨，处于历史高位。
  2. 避险需求：地缘政治不确定性（如格陵兰岛事件）和美元信用担忧推动黄金作为避险资产的需求
  3. 技术面修复：前期快速下跌触发技术性买盘与空头回补，推动价格报复性反弹
  4. 中长期支撑：全球央行持续购金、去美元化进程加速、美联储货币政策宽松预期，为金价提供底层支撑
  5. 机构看涨：摩根大通将 2026 年底金价目标上调至 6300 美元 / 盎司，瑞银上调前三个季度目标至 6200 美元 / 盎司，均强调央行购金与货币体系重构的长期逻辑

压制因素

1. 美联储政策预期变化

近期黄金市场剧烈波动的重要导火索是美联储主席提名引发的政策预期变化。特朗普提名偏鹰派的凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)为下任美联储主席，市场担忧其可能推行"降息+缩表"的紧缩组合政策。沃什历史上以通胀鹰派著称，曾公开反对量化宽松并主张快速缩表，这一提名导致美元走强预期升温，压制了以美元计价的黄金。

2. 技术面超买与杠杆资金出清

黄金在1月份累计上涨30%后，市场呈现极端超买状态：
CME和上期所连续上调黄金期货保证金比例，黄金保证金从6%调至8%
这导致高杠杆资金被迫平仓，形成"下跌-强平-再下跌"的负反馈循环

3. 市场情绪与获利了结

前期快速上涨积累了丰厚获利盘：
1月黄金涨幅达30%，白银涨幅60%
投机性多头持仓拥挤度创近期新高
部分机构投资者选择在高位兑现利润

4. 美元短期走强

美国1月失业率降至4.0%，经济数据韧性使市场对美联储降息预期减弱，推动美元指数走强。历史数据显示，美元与黄金通常呈现负相关关系，美元走强直接压制金价表现

5. 地缘政治短期缓和

部分地缘风险出现缓和迹象：
美伊核谈判重启
俄乌冲突出现缓和预期
格陵兰岛主权争议暂缓

二、投资者策略

短期：等待波动率从极端高位显著回落；关注关键支撑位的企稳信号
中长期：采用分批建仓策略，规避短期波动风险；关注央行购金数据、美联储政策动向等核心变量
市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上分析仅供参考，不构成投资建议
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

周末刷了刷抖音,白银行情应该是完了.

2026年2月9日鸭苗、毛鸭行情早报:鸭苗止稳回落,毛鸭局部微调.

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000418s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000780s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000294s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000293s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000472s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000199s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000640s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 478278 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000391s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770582337 WHERE `id` = 478278 [ RunTime:0.009459s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000702s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 478278 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005642s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 478278 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004605s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 478278 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.011490s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 478278 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.010707s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 478278 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004811s ]
0.119168s