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3月豆粕行情及期现货操作看法

  • 2026-02-25 03:00:38
3月豆粕行情及期现货操作看法
小红圈微信支付升级中，只有支付宝可支付，流程如下：
1.下载小红圈app（微信商店里搜索wered），用常用的微信（安卓手机）登录小红圈，
2.搜索“X豆粕”，点击进去加入圈子，选择支付宝付款就可以了
今天是新年的第一个工作日，首先祝诸君新年新气象，开工大吉，大吉大利。
假日期间，美豆主力05合约基本同节前保持平水，国内连粕开盘后，小幅震荡收跌，今天大概说一下对3月豆粕现货的看法以及后续期货操作的想法：
3月的豆粕现货价格我认为是有支撑的，首先到港减少，大豆和豆粕处于持续的去库周期，现货基差的支撑应该是比较强的，其次年后下游有补库需求，也会支撑豆粕现货价格。从数据对比来看，目前的数据和去年过年的当周比较接近，大豆整体综合库存都在1100万吨量级，而去年过完年还有个累库的过程，而今年将持续去库，个人认为整个3月份现货价格易涨难跌，尤其是基差存在上涨可能。对于贸易和饲料养殖端补货可以考虑对照华东区域3000-3050区间补充3月份豆粕所需
再看期货端，03合约逐渐进入交割月，前期文章中也提到过，有交割资质的企业户可以考虑参与多头交割，个人认为目前的价格依然是合理的。
05合约相对于03合约，个人一直维持谨慎的态度，结合现货基差和现货价格走势预判，以及目前CBOT价格、南美大豆产量、出口和天气情况，纯从个人看法来说，05合约整个剩下的交易周期会是一个小幅区间震荡的走势，预估2700-3000区间，首先3月份，受国内现货基差支撑，05合约不存在深度下跌的可能，但随着4月到港增加，国内消费进入淡季，现货基差走弱以及南美大豆大量上市，05存在下跌可能，4月05期限回归下，但是想跌破2700也比较困难。
所以，下一步交易计划：我目前为空仓状态，年前清仓了03合约，03合约马上要进入交割月也不好交易，如果05合约在本周回调至2700-2750区间（因为目前CBOT价格利多驱动有限叠加懂王关税影响存在回调可能带动05合约回调），我会买入多单，持有至4月初，到时综合考量现货价格、现货基差以及05盘面价格，看是否参与空单，后再做05的期限回归行情。基本目前的考虑是这样的。
下一步重点关注国内抛储的动态，至于巴西出口和到港，目前看没有太大的利空
下游基于5月合约的基差头寸也可能参考我上面的价格点价，到时事情洗基差也可以的。
仅供参考，盈亏自负
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免责声明：本文基于公开市场信息整理，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，文中任何信息都请务必作为您个人独立思考的参考之一，而非决策的唯一依据。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000508s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=no_mfffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000827s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.004153s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.001908s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000632s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.005435s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000696s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 484321 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001862s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771993486 WHERE `id` = 484321 [ RunTime:0.020617s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002066s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484321 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000611s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 484321 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000391s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484321 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000777s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484321 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.003650s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 484321 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002718s ]
0.130969s